โพสต์
รัฐบาลมะกันปัดอุ้มซีไอทีจ่อล้ม
วันเสาร์ที่ 18 กรกฎาคม พ.ศ. 2552
โพสต์ทูเดย์ — สถาบันการเงินระดับยักษ์ใหญ่ของสหรัฐจ่อล้มอีกราย รุนแรงที่สุดนับตั้งแต่การล้มละลายของวอชิงตัน มิวชวล เมื่อปีที่แล้ว
ซีไอที สถาบันการเงินชั้นนำที่ปล่อยกู้ให้กับธุรกิจเอสเอ็มอีนับล้านแห่งในสหรัฐและ ทั่วโลก จวนเจียนจะล้มละลายลงทุกขณะ หลังจากที่รัฐบาลสหรัฐปฏิเสธที่จะให้ความช่วยเหลือด้วยการพยุงกิจการเช่น เดียวกับสถาบันการเงินอื่นๆ โดยไม่ไยดีว่า หากซีไอทีล้มละลายอาจส่งผลกระทบรุนแรงต่อเศรษฐกิจทั้งระบบ
ก่อนหน้านี้กระทรวงการคลังสหรัฐอนุมัติเงินช่วยเหลือให้กับซีไอที 2,300 ล้านเหรียญสหรัฐ (ราว 7.8 หมื่นล้านบาท) แต่ระบุว่าจะไม่ให้ความช่วยเหลือเพิ่มเติมแต่อย่างใด
ด้านเจ้าหน้าที่ระดับสูงคนหนึ่งในรัฐบาลสหรัฐ เปิดเผยกับสำนักข่าวเอเอฟพี ว่า การที่รัฐบาลลดจำนวนเงินช่วยเหลือซีไอที เท่ากับบ่งชี้ว่าสถาบันการเงินแห่งนี้ไม่ใหญ่พอที่จะสร้างผลสะเทือนต่อระบบ เศรษฐกิจ
อย่างไรก็ตาม เทรซี มัลลิน ประธาน สมาพันธ์ค้าปลีกแห่งชาติสหรัฐ (เอ็นอาร์เอฟ) ชี้ว่า การล้มละลายของซีไอทีจะส่งผลกระทบต่อธุรกิจค้าปลีกนับพันราย และต่อมา จะกระทบต่อการใช้จ่ายของผู้บริโภค ซึ่งมีสัดส่วนถึง 2 ใน 3 ของระบบเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐ
หลังจากที่รัฐบาลสหรัฐปฏิเสธที่จะเข้าพยุงกิจการ ส่งผลให้ราคาหุ้นของซีไอทีทิ้งตัวลงถึง 75% มูลค่าเหลือเพียง 40 เซนต์ต่อหุ้น ขณะที่บริษัทจัดอันดับความน่าเชื่อถือชั้นนำอย่างสแตนดาร์ด แอนด์ พัวร์ (เอสแอนด์พี) และฟิทช์ เรทติ้งส์ ต่างตัดสินใจลดระดับความน่าเชื่อถือของซีไอทีลงมา
ซีไอที แถลงว่า ขณะนี้ทางบริษัทยังคงมองหาลู่ทางอื่นๆ ในการหาเงินทุนเข้าบริษัทเพื่อสกัดกั้นการล้มละลาย ซึ่งก่อนหน้านี้บรรดาผู้ถือหุ้นของซีไอทีได้เรียกประชุมฉุกเฉินเพื่อหารือ ถึงแนวทางการหาเงินทุนเร่งด่วนเพื่อหนุนสถานะของบริษัท แต่ขณะนี้ยังหาทางออกไม่ได้
ซีไอทีจำเป็นต้องมีเงินทุนหนุนอย่างน้อย 2,000 ล้านเหรียญสหรัฐ (ราว 6.8 หมื่นล้านบาท) ภายใน 24 ชั่วโมง และต้องมีทุนหนุนรวม 6,000 ล้านเหรียญสหรัฐ (ราว 2 แสนล้านบาท) เพื่อเลี่ยงภาวะล้มละลาย
ทั้งนี้ การล้มละลายของซีไอทีซึ่งมีสินทรัพย์ถึง 7.6 หมื่นล้านเหรียญสหรัฐ จะถือเป็นการล้มละลายของสถาบันการเงิน ที่ใหญ่ที่สุด นับตั้งแต่การล้มละลายของวอชิงตัน มิวชวล เมื่อเดือนก.ย.ปีที่แล้ว ซึ่งในครั้งนั้นก่อให้เกิดหนี้สูญจำนวนมหาศาล
New Bull Market confirmed !!!!
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สวนหย่อม
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New Bull Market confirmed !!!!
โพสต์ที่ 34
ขอบคุณพี่ LOSO ครับ
Conditions Of New Bull Market: Coppock Guide
In fact, compared to say the RSI or MACD, the Coppock Guide is an esoteric and rarely mentioned technical indicator. It was created by Edwin S. Coppock some 50 years ago and although it is followed closely by a very small group of technical analysts, its calculation is not complicated at all.
You can keep track of it yourself. Heres the recipe: you need historical monthly Dow Jones Industrial data. You add the 14 month ROC to an 11 month ROC, then you take a 10 month (simple linear) weighted moving average of the result. Thats it.
If youre mathematically astute, youve already noticed that it is just another oscillator
How is the Coppock Guide interpreted?
The most traditional interpretation is to recognize a buy signal when the Coppock Guide curls up while it is below the zero line.
It can also provide sell signals, although these are less frequent. If the Coppock curve makes a double top formation without first having come down to the zero line (or below it), the market is in for a seriously brutal bear market. You should be able to find one such occurrence in the chart.
So you can see why I think it is almost too good to share. In its history, only 4 false signals have occurred. Thats an 83% accuracy rate.
What is the Coppock Guide saying now?
The good news is that the Coppock Guide is in negative territory projected to fall into negative territory this month. So now any upturn can potentially give us a buy signal. The bad news is that this may happen next week, next month or next year.
The key factor is an upturn. But that can happen from an incredibly low level, like say in 1974 or 1932 (not shown) or it may happen just under the zero line, as in 1994.
Although no indicator can give a full iron clad guarantee, when the Coppock Guide turns up it would totally skew the probabilities towards a new bull market. As always Im keeping a close watch and now that the cat is out of the bag, you can too.
Conditions Of New Bull Market: Coppock Guide
In fact, compared to say the RSI or MACD, the Coppock Guide is an esoteric and rarely mentioned technical indicator. It was created by Edwin S. Coppock some 50 years ago and although it is followed closely by a very small group of technical analysts, its calculation is not complicated at all.
You can keep track of it yourself. Heres the recipe: you need historical monthly Dow Jones Industrial data. You add the 14 month ROC to an 11 month ROC, then you take a 10 month (simple linear) weighted moving average of the result. Thats it.
If youre mathematically astute, youve already noticed that it is just another oscillator
How is the Coppock Guide interpreted?
The most traditional interpretation is to recognize a buy signal when the Coppock Guide curls up while it is below the zero line.
It can also provide sell signals, although these are less frequent. If the Coppock curve makes a double top formation without first having come down to the zero line (or below it), the market is in for a seriously brutal bear market. You should be able to find one such occurrence in the chart.
So you can see why I think it is almost too good to share. In its history, only 4 false signals have occurred. Thats an 83% accuracy rate.
What is the Coppock Guide saying now?
The good news is that the Coppock Guide is in negative territory projected to fall into negative territory this month. So now any upturn can potentially give us a buy signal. The bad news is that this may happen next week, next month or next year.
The key factor is an upturn. But that can happen from an incredibly low level, like say in 1974 or 1932 (not shown) or it may happen just under the zero line, as in 1994.
Although no indicator can give a full iron clad guarantee, when the Coppock Guide turns up it would totally skew the probabilities towards a new bull market. As always Im keeping a close watch and now that the cat is out of the bag, you can too.
ในยามลมแรง แม้แต่ไก่งวงยังบินได้
แต่เมื่อยามลมพัดหวน ผู้ที่อยู่รอดนั้่นคือพญาอินทรี
แต่เมื่อยามลมพัดหวน ผู้ที่อยู่รอดนั้่นคือพญาอินทรี
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LOSO
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New Bull Market confirmed !!!!
โพสต์ที่ 35
Wesbury: The Economy Is Much Stronger Than the Media Says
There's a growing consensus the economy will start growing again later this year but 2010 will be characterized by subpar growth. That consensus is wrong, according to Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, who believes there will be a V-shaped recovery.
"If you're optimistic today people look at you like you've got three eyes," Wesbury jokes. But as detailed in a recent Forbes column and the accompanying video, he predicts real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) GDP will be 3.5% in the second half of 2009 and 4.5% in 2010
Why We Expect 4% GDP Growth
Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein, 07.14.09, 12:01 AM EDT
http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/13/gdp-gr ... -2009.html
There's a growing consensus the economy will start growing again later this year but 2010 will be characterized by subpar growth. That consensus is wrong, according to Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, who believes there will be a V-shaped recovery.
"If you're optimistic today people look at you like you've got three eyes," Wesbury jokes. But as detailed in a recent Forbes column and the accompanying video, he predicts real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) GDP will be 3.5% in the second half of 2009 and 4.5% in 2010
Why We Expect 4% GDP Growth
Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein, 07.14.09, 12:01 AM EDT
http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/13/gdp-gr ... -2009.html
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classy
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New Bull Market confirmed !!!!
โพสต์ที่ 36
Many Predict US Financial Collapse in September
http://www.henrymakow.com/perhaps_we_sh ... e_for.html
อันนี้เค้าบอกให้ เก็บ หุ้น พวก อาหาร น้ำ ทองจะไป 8000 เงินจะไป 600 นะครับ แต่อ่านๆ แล้วก็น่ากลัว ถ้าจริง
http://www.henrymakow.com/perhaps_we_sh ... e_for.html
อันนี้เค้าบอกให้ เก็บ หุ้น พวก อาหาร น้ำ ทองจะไป 8000 เงินจะไป 600 นะครับ แต่อ่านๆ แล้วก็น่ากลัว ถ้าจริง
Life is a lot like Jazz, it's best when you improvise
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pavilion
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โพสต์ที่ 37
Dow 15,000, Here We Come: Stocks Going to New Highs, Lemonides Says
Posted Jul 23, 2009 08:00am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession
Related: ^dji, ^GSPC, qqqq, ba, lm, mmm, spy
Quarterly earnings reports have reignited the dormant rally that began in early March and ran into June. The Nasdaq is on an eleven-day winning streak. The Dow dipped fractionally Wednesday but is just about break even for the year and the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 is at its highest point since November.
Skeptics warn the rally may fade as expectations get ahead of reality. But Charles Lemonides, chief investment officer with ValueWorks, says there's plenty of upside left, thanks to improving fundamentals. "When you have better economic conditions and really, really compelling valuations; and you're bumping up against the top end of a range its sort of a good recipe for breaking through that range and going significantly higher," he says.
Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, got the 'Tech Ticker' crowd going on Wednesday, when he made a similar call, saying stocks are 50% undervalued and the Dow could hit 10,000 by year end. Lemonides' call is even more bold: "I don't think it would be surprising to see a 12,000 number [on the Dow] six months to a year out," he says.
But he's not done there: "You'll see the market retrace its old high which means I think that over a couple of years you'll see 15,000 on the Dow."
I told you it was bold.
According to Lemonides, the same thing that drove the tech and housing bubbles will also drive this next rally: low interest rates. In his view, "interest rates modulate economic activity. And, with rates essentially as low as they can go, he expects asset inflation, "not really fast but over time."
It's a simple formula "capitalism comes with boom and bust" and after going bust last year we're in the beginning stages of a boom.
In the meantime, hes buying stocks he thinks are undervalued, including Legg Mason, 3M and Boeing. With each company, "youre getting these names at valuations that are just off the charts and in an economic environment thats likely to be improving," Lemonides says.
http://finance.yahoo.com/techticker/art ... nides-Says
Posted Jul 23, 2009 08:00am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession
Related: ^dji, ^GSPC, qqqq, ba, lm, mmm, spy
Quarterly earnings reports have reignited the dormant rally that began in early March and ran into June. The Nasdaq is on an eleven-day winning streak. The Dow dipped fractionally Wednesday but is just about break even for the year and the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 is at its highest point since November.
Skeptics warn the rally may fade as expectations get ahead of reality. But Charles Lemonides, chief investment officer with ValueWorks, says there's plenty of upside left, thanks to improving fundamentals. "When you have better economic conditions and really, really compelling valuations; and you're bumping up against the top end of a range its sort of a good recipe for breaking through that range and going significantly higher," he says.
Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, got the 'Tech Ticker' crowd going on Wednesday, when he made a similar call, saying stocks are 50% undervalued and the Dow could hit 10,000 by year end. Lemonides' call is even more bold: "I don't think it would be surprising to see a 12,000 number [on the Dow] six months to a year out," he says.
But he's not done there: "You'll see the market retrace its old high which means I think that over a couple of years you'll see 15,000 on the Dow."
I told you it was bold.
According to Lemonides, the same thing that drove the tech and housing bubbles will also drive this next rally: low interest rates. In his view, "interest rates modulate economic activity. And, with rates essentially as low as they can go, he expects asset inflation, "not really fast but over time."
It's a simple formula "capitalism comes with boom and bust" and after going bust last year we're in the beginning stages of a boom.
In the meantime, hes buying stocks he thinks are undervalued, including Legg Mason, 3M and Boeing. With each company, "youre getting these names at valuations that are just off the charts and in an economic environment thats likely to be improving," Lemonides says.
http://finance.yahoo.com/techticker/art ... nides-Says
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LOSO
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โพสต์ที่ 39
US yearly economic growth at fresh 5-yr high--ECRI
Fri Jul 24, 2009 3:30pm EDT
NEW YORK, July 24 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S.
economic growth edged higher in the latest week, while its
measure of annual growth continued to stride at five-year
highs, feeding hopes that a smooth recovery is due this year, a
research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based
independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index
rose to 118.4 in the week to July 17 from 118.1 the previous
week.
The index's annualized growth rate jumped to a fresh
five-year high of 7.7 percent from 7.0 percent one week ago.
It was the index's highest yearly growth rate reading since
the week ended May 7, 2004, when it stood at 7.8 percent.
"With WLI growth climbing to a new five-year high, it is
reaffirming that the end of recession is at hand and that the
U.S. economy is poised for recovery in short order," said
Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
The weekly index rose due to higher stock and commodity
prices, said Achuthan.
(Reporting by Camille Drummond, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
http://www.reuters.com/article/economic ... 5720090724
Fri Jul 24, 2009 3:30pm EDT
NEW YORK, July 24 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S.
economic growth edged higher in the latest week, while its
measure of annual growth continued to stride at five-year
highs, feeding hopes that a smooth recovery is due this year, a
research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based
independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index
rose to 118.4 in the week to July 17 from 118.1 the previous
week.
The index's annualized growth rate jumped to a fresh
five-year high of 7.7 percent from 7.0 percent one week ago.
It was the index's highest yearly growth rate reading since
the week ended May 7, 2004, when it stood at 7.8 percent.
"With WLI growth climbing to a new five-year high, it is
reaffirming that the end of recession is at hand and that the
U.S. economy is poised for recovery in short order," said
Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
The weekly index rose due to higher stock and commodity
prices, said Achuthan.
(Reporting by Camille Drummond, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
http://www.reuters.com/article/economic ... 5720090724
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LOSO
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New Bull Market confirmed !!!!
โพสต์ที่ 40
ความพยายามไม่มี ปัญญาไม่เกิด
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LOSO
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New Bull Market confirmed !!!!
โพสต์ที่ 41
Bernanke: Economy to bounce back stronger
Last Updated: July 27, 2009: 10:37 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Sunday that lessons learned from the recession and the financial crisis will help make the economy stronger than it was before the crisis.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/26/news/ec ... /index.htm
Last Updated: July 27, 2009: 10:37 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Sunday that lessons learned from the recession and the financial crisis will help make the economy stronger than it was before the crisis.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/26/news/ec ... /index.htm
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LOSO
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New Bull Market confirmed !!!!
โพสต์ที่ 42
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LOSO
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New Bull Market confirmed !!!!
โพสต์ที่ 45
Home Price Upturn
ECRI
July 29, 2009
(ECRI) - Excerpted from May 2009 report to Professional Members
"END OF HOME PRICE DOWNTURN IN SIGHT"
"With U.S. home values far below their boom-time highs, most observers are resigned to an indefinite downdraft in home prices. It is this uncertainty about the ultimate bottom in home prices that has converted so many mortgage-related derivatives into toxic assets. Yet, at long last, the end of the home price downturn is in sight.
One key reason for the turnaround in the outlook is housing affordability, which is hovering around all-time highs. The current combination of drastically reduced home prices and very low mortgage rates has hardly ever been seen in living memory…
Most importantly, the U.S. Leading Home Price Index (USLHPI), designed to predict cyclical turns in real home prices, has now been rising for five months… But a three P’s analysis (see chart on homepage) of the level of the USLHPI reveals an even more promising picture… the recent upturn in the USLHPI is almost as pronounced as the median in comparable past cycles… it is almost as pervasive; and … it is just as persistent. The implication is clear: this is a genuine cyclical upturn in the level of the USLHPI. Such an upturn in the USLHPI amounts to a forecast of a cyclical upturn in the level of home prices this year…
ECRI’s apparent optimism about the economy is very much at odds with a stubbornly downbeat consensus. When almost every seasoned analyst is so pessimistic, doubts about the likelihood of an upturn are entirely understandable.
But we also know that this is precisely the phase of the business cycle when, in the wake of a major crisis, a “giant error of pessimism” runs rampant. It is therefore especially important to remember at this juncture that the opinions we express are based not on our gut feel, but on a system of objective leading indicators with a stronger theoretical foundation and a more rigorously tried and tested record that any others in existence. Its real-time track record is also unrivaled. Our confidence in their predictive power is based on long experience with these indicators.
While more analysts are coming around to our view about the economic recovery, there are plenty that remain doubtful. Only the reality of the recovery will convince such skeptics, but by then it will be much too late for decision makers to take timely steps to stay ahead of the curve.
We understand that some will be incredulous about our home price upturn call, coming on the heels of our business cycle recovery forecast… it is worth remembering that our apparent boldness is merely a reflection of what our objective leading indexes are telling us today."
ECRI
July 29, 2009
(ECRI) - Excerpted from May 2009 report to Professional Members
"END OF HOME PRICE DOWNTURN IN SIGHT"
"With U.S. home values far below their boom-time highs, most observers are resigned to an indefinite downdraft in home prices. It is this uncertainty about the ultimate bottom in home prices that has converted so many mortgage-related derivatives into toxic assets. Yet, at long last, the end of the home price downturn is in sight.
One key reason for the turnaround in the outlook is housing affordability, which is hovering around all-time highs. The current combination of drastically reduced home prices and very low mortgage rates has hardly ever been seen in living memory…
Most importantly, the U.S. Leading Home Price Index (USLHPI), designed to predict cyclical turns in real home prices, has now been rising for five months… But a three P’s analysis (see chart on homepage) of the level of the USLHPI reveals an even more promising picture… the recent upturn in the USLHPI is almost as pronounced as the median in comparable past cycles… it is almost as pervasive; and … it is just as persistent. The implication is clear: this is a genuine cyclical upturn in the level of the USLHPI. Such an upturn in the USLHPI amounts to a forecast of a cyclical upturn in the level of home prices this year…
ECRI’s apparent optimism about the economy is very much at odds with a stubbornly downbeat consensus. When almost every seasoned analyst is so pessimistic, doubts about the likelihood of an upturn are entirely understandable.
But we also know that this is precisely the phase of the business cycle when, in the wake of a major crisis, a “giant error of pessimism” runs rampant. It is therefore especially important to remember at this juncture that the opinions we express are based not on our gut feel, but on a system of objective leading indicators with a stronger theoretical foundation and a more rigorously tried and tested record that any others in existence. Its real-time track record is also unrivaled. Our confidence in their predictive power is based on long experience with these indicators.
While more analysts are coming around to our view about the economic recovery, there are plenty that remain doubtful. Only the reality of the recovery will convince such skeptics, but by then it will be much too late for decision makers to take timely steps to stay ahead of the curve.
We understand that some will be incredulous about our home price upturn call, coming on the heels of our business cycle recovery forecast… it is worth remembering that our apparent boldness is merely a reflection of what our objective leading indexes are telling us today."
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prichar s.
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New Bull Market confirmed !!!!
โพสต์ที่ 47
ขออนุญาต
ไม่ได้เข้ามาเห็นด้วยหรือคัดค้านหรอกนะ
ในฐานะนักลงทุนเล็ก ๆ เมื่อมั่นใจมากก็มีหุ้นมาก เมื่อมั่นใจน้อยก็มีหุ้นน้อยลง
เรื่องการคาดแนวโน้มตลาด จะเป็นเทคนิคหรือฟันโฟลว หรือเศรษฐกิจโลก ล้วนยากเกินสติปัญญา
ตามไปเรื่อย ๆ ง่ายกว่า และสบายใจกว่า
มีเวลาลงทุนทั้งชีวิตครับ
ไม่ได้เข้ามาเห็นด้วยหรือคัดค้านหรอกนะ
ในฐานะนักลงทุนเล็ก ๆ เมื่อมั่นใจมากก็มีหุ้นมาก เมื่อมั่นใจน้อยก็มีหุ้นน้อยลง
เรื่องการคาดแนวโน้มตลาด จะเป็นเทคนิคหรือฟันโฟลว หรือเศรษฐกิจโลก ล้วนยากเกินสติปัญญา
ตามไปเรื่อย ๆ ง่ายกว่า และสบายใจกว่า
มีเวลาลงทุนทั้งชีวิตครับ
-
LOSO
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โพสต์ที่ 48
US recovery to be "stronger than many expect"--ECRI
Fri Jul 31, 2009 10:30am EDT
NEW YORK, July 31 (Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth climbed higher in the latest week while its yearly growth rate hit a fresh five-year high, signaling a stronger recovery than originally forecast, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 119.6 in the week ended July 24 from a downwardly revised 118.3 the previous week, which was originally reported at 118.4.
The index's annualized growth rate continued to soar, reaching a new five-year high of 8.8 percent from 7.7 percent the prior week.
It was the highest yearly growth reading since the week to Oct. 3, 2008 when it was 8.9 percent.
ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan has said the recession is already beginning to wane, and that increased stimulus from Washington is not necessary for economic growth.
"Not only is the U.S. recession set to end this summer, but the recovery is apt to be stronger than many expect."
The weekly index rose in the latest week due to firmer housing activity, said Achuthan. (Reporting by Camille Drummond, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
http://www.reuters.com/article/companyN ... 7420090731
Fri Jul 31, 2009 10:30am EDT
NEW YORK, July 31 (Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth climbed higher in the latest week while its yearly growth rate hit a fresh five-year high, signaling a stronger recovery than originally forecast, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 119.6 in the week ended July 24 from a downwardly revised 118.3 the previous week, which was originally reported at 118.4.
The index's annualized growth rate continued to soar, reaching a new five-year high of 8.8 percent from 7.7 percent the prior week.
It was the highest yearly growth reading since the week to Oct. 3, 2008 when it was 8.9 percent.
ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan has said the recession is already beginning to wane, and that increased stimulus from Washington is not necessary for economic growth.
"Not only is the U.S. recession set to end this summer, but the recovery is apt to be stronger than many expect."
The weekly index rose in the latest week due to firmer housing activity, said Achuthan. (Reporting by Camille Drummond, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
http://www.reuters.com/article/companyN ... 7420090731
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gnomeller
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โพสต์ที่ 49
ผมว่ารอดูกันต่อไปครับ ตอนนี้หลายๆอย่างมันยังสับสนในตัวเองอยู่ เหมือนการยกระดับครั้งนี้มันมาจากการอัดฉีดเงินกับระบบของการการเงินที่ทั่วโลกเค้าพยายามแก้ไขกันอยู่ แต่ดูโดยรวมแล้วอุตสาหกรรมยังไม่ดีเท่าไหร่นัก
แต่ก็ต้องดูๆกันไปหน่ะครับ อยากให้เป็นกระทิงดุเหมือนกัน
แต่ก็ต้องดูๆกันไปหน่ะครับ อยากให้เป็นกระทิงดุเหมือนกัน
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LOSO
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โพสต์ที่ 52
WLI Growth Soars Into Double-Digits
U.S. economic growth gauge makes steady gains - ECRI
Fri Aug 7, 2009 10:30am EDT
NEW YORK, Aug 7 (Reuters) - A measure of future U.S.
economic growth crept higher in the latest week, while its
yearly growth rate advanced to another five-year high,
reaffirming projections of a strong, near-term recovery, a
research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based
independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index
rose to 121.8 in the week ended July 31 from a downwardly
revised 119.5 the week prior, which was originally reported at
119.6.
The index's annualized growth rate reached a fresh
five-year high of 10.5 percent from 8.8 percent the previous
week.
It was the highest yearly growth reading since the week
ended March 19, 2004, when it stood at 11.0 percent.
"With WLI growth soaring into the double-digit range,
prospects for U.S. economic growth have brightened
significantly," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.
Achuthan told Reuters last week that the recovery is poised
to be "stronger than many expect."
(Reporting by Camille Drummond; Editing by Padraic Cassidy)
http://www.reuters.com/article/companyN ... 8920090807
U.S. economic growth gauge makes steady gains - ECRI
Fri Aug 7, 2009 10:30am EDT
NEW YORK, Aug 7 (Reuters) - A measure of future U.S.
economic growth crept higher in the latest week, while its
yearly growth rate advanced to another five-year high,
reaffirming projections of a strong, near-term recovery, a
research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based
independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index
rose to 121.8 in the week ended July 31 from a downwardly
revised 119.5 the week prior, which was originally reported at
119.6.
The index's annualized growth rate reached a fresh
five-year high of 10.5 percent from 8.8 percent the previous
week.
It was the highest yearly growth reading since the week
ended March 19, 2004, when it stood at 11.0 percent.
"With WLI growth soaring into the double-digit range,
prospects for U.S. economic growth have brightened
significantly," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.
Achuthan told Reuters last week that the recovery is poised
to be "stronger than many expect."
(Reporting by Camille Drummond; Editing by Padraic Cassidy)
http://www.reuters.com/article/companyN ... 8920090807
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LOSO
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New Bull Market confirmed !!!!
โพสต์ที่ 53
US job losses slow. Time to curb your pessimism?
By Laurent Belsie | 08.07.09
Recessions spawn gloom. Deep recessions create so much gloom that good news – like Friday’s much-better-than-expected jobs report – comes as a jolt.
It shouldn’t, says Lakshman Achuthan, of Economic Cycle Research Institute, who makes his living predicting the ups and downs of the economy. It does only because of the “giant error of pessimism.”
The pessimism works this way: Last month, 247,000 Americans lost their jobs, the Department of Labor reported Friday. In a run-of-the-mill recession, that would be a disaster, points out economist Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics.
But in the context of this grinding recession, it represents an improvement. July’s job losses were the smallest since August 2008. Most analysts were expecting July’s job losses to be far higher.
The unemployment rate also improved – declining from 9.5 percent in June to 9.4 percent in July – but for all the wrong reasons. The labor pool shrank as more Americans gave up actively looking for work and thus were no longer counted.
Such gloomier-than-necessary attitudes – among analysts and discouraged workers alike – have been part of every US economic crisis in the past century, Mr. Achuthan says in a telephone interview. “There’s kind of a belief that before we can recover we must fix all of these bad things that were going on. [But] the business-cycle recovery does not require that every one of our past misdeeds or bad decisions be corrected.”
Already, his weekly leading indicators are surging into double-digit growth – the first time that’s happened since 2004, he says. Unlike many analysts who see a U-shaped recovery, where the economy continues to scrape along the bottom for months to come and then turns up, he says the most likely scenario is a more immediate upturn that looks like a v.
It won’t be a big V, like the strong recoveries of 30 or 40 years ago, he adds. Today’s problems – such as too much debt and falling housing prices – will be a drag on growth. But a small v is much better than a U or the double-dip recession that some analysts are forecasting.
When a boom ends and optimism gives way to pessimism, “that error of pessimism isn’t born an infant, it’s born a giant,” Achuthan says. Then, “when a recession ends and a recovery begins, it’s going to feel in your gut certainly very bad, because you are near the worst part of the business cycle. You’re at the low.”
If he’s right, the coming turnaround will prove stronger than most Americans are expecting.
http://features.csmonitor.com/economyre ... pessimism/
By Laurent Belsie | 08.07.09
Recessions spawn gloom. Deep recessions create so much gloom that good news – like Friday’s much-better-than-expected jobs report – comes as a jolt.
It shouldn’t, says Lakshman Achuthan, of Economic Cycle Research Institute, who makes his living predicting the ups and downs of the economy. It does only because of the “giant error of pessimism.”
The pessimism works this way: Last month, 247,000 Americans lost their jobs, the Department of Labor reported Friday. In a run-of-the-mill recession, that would be a disaster, points out economist Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics.
But in the context of this grinding recession, it represents an improvement. July’s job losses were the smallest since August 2008. Most analysts were expecting July’s job losses to be far higher.
The unemployment rate also improved – declining from 9.5 percent in June to 9.4 percent in July – but for all the wrong reasons. The labor pool shrank as more Americans gave up actively looking for work and thus were no longer counted.
Such gloomier-than-necessary attitudes – among analysts and discouraged workers alike – have been part of every US economic crisis in the past century, Mr. Achuthan says in a telephone interview. “There’s kind of a belief that before we can recover we must fix all of these bad things that were going on. [But] the business-cycle recovery does not require that every one of our past misdeeds or bad decisions be corrected.”
Already, his weekly leading indicators are surging into double-digit growth – the first time that’s happened since 2004, he says. Unlike many analysts who see a U-shaped recovery, where the economy continues to scrape along the bottom for months to come and then turns up, he says the most likely scenario is a more immediate upturn that looks like a v.
It won’t be a big V, like the strong recoveries of 30 or 40 years ago, he adds. Today’s problems – such as too much debt and falling housing prices – will be a drag on growth. But a small v is much better than a U or the double-dip recession that some analysts are forecasting.
When a boom ends and optimism gives way to pessimism, “that error of pessimism isn’t born an infant, it’s born a giant,” Achuthan says. Then, “when a recession ends and a recovery begins, it’s going to feel in your gut certainly very bad, because you are near the worst part of the business cycle. You’re at the low.”
If he’s right, the coming turnaround will prove stronger than most Americans are expecting.
http://features.csmonitor.com/economyre ... pessimism/
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crazyrisk
- สมาชิกกิตติมศักดิ์
- โพสต์: 4562
- ผู้ติดตาม: 40
New Bull Market confirmed !!!!
โพสต์ที่ 54
Krugman says world avoided second Great Depression
Krugman says world avoided second Great Depression but real recovery will take time
* By Eileen Ng, Associated Press Writer
* On Monday August 10, 2009, 3:40 am EDT
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) -- Aggressive stimulus spending by governments helped the world avoid a second Great Depression but full economic recovery will take two years or more, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said Monday.
Krugman said the worst of the global crisis was over with economic and exports growth showing signs of stabilization. Still, recovery was likely to be "disappointing" as government spending wasn't sustainable in the long-run and unemployment rate still lagging behind, he told a two-day world capital markets conference here.
There isn't likely to be any "Phoenix-like" recovery such as in the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, where the economies expanded dramatically, led by a sharp rebound in exports, he said.
"We have managed to avoid a second Great Depression ... but full recovery is at least two years and probably more," Krugman said.
Asia is likely to see a faster rebound, than the U.S. and Europe, partly driven by the recovery in manufacturing exports, he said.
In the clearest sign yet that the recession may be ending, the U.S. Labor Department last Friday showed the jobless rate in the world's largest economy dipped for the first time in 15 months while workers' hours and pay edged upward.
It said a net total of 247,000 jobs were lost last month, the fewest in a year and a drastic improvement from the 443,000 that vanished in June. Still, the job market remains shaky. A quarter-million lost jobs are a far cry from the employment growth needed to put the national economy on solid footing.
President Barack Obama has urged Americans to be patient and give time for his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending to take hold. Most of the money will flow in 2010.
Krugman said there was still room for the U.S. government to increase spending to boost growth, despite concerns over its swollen budget deficit.
Krugman, who teaches at Princeton University, won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences last year for his analysis of how economies of scale can affect international trade patterns. He also writes columns for The New York Times.
He said there was a need to restructure the global financial system and impose tighter regulations to avoid a repeat of the economic crisis, but expressed concern that the momentum for reforms appeared to be easing.
"We do not have the political will to do that just yet ... I suspect clever people can still make a lot of money from the financial system in the next few years," he warned.
Earlier, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak urged regulators worldwide to jointly create a compatible, sustainable and effective surveillance system to prevent future market crashes. These include keeping a close eye on risk-taking activities and having a common procedure for intervention if there are signs of irrational excess, he said.
"Over-reliance on self-regulation is a mistake," he said. "Global regulators should err on the side of investor protection and financial stability rather than rely on a 'buyer beware' regulatory regime."
Singapore's Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Hong Kong Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury K.C. Chan warned against being too hasty, saying greater regulation of financial institutions mustn't be at the expense of stifling innovation and growth. [/b]
Krugman says world avoided second Great Depression but real recovery will take time
* By Eileen Ng, Associated Press Writer
* On Monday August 10, 2009, 3:40 am EDT
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) -- Aggressive stimulus spending by governments helped the world avoid a second Great Depression but full economic recovery will take two years or more, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said Monday.
Krugman said the worst of the global crisis was over with economic and exports growth showing signs of stabilization. Still, recovery was likely to be "disappointing" as government spending wasn't sustainable in the long-run and unemployment rate still lagging behind, he told a two-day world capital markets conference here.
There isn't likely to be any "Phoenix-like" recovery such as in the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, where the economies expanded dramatically, led by a sharp rebound in exports, he said.
"We have managed to avoid a second Great Depression ... but full recovery is at least two years and probably more," Krugman said.
Asia is likely to see a faster rebound, than the U.S. and Europe, partly driven by the recovery in manufacturing exports, he said.
In the clearest sign yet that the recession may be ending, the U.S. Labor Department last Friday showed the jobless rate in the world's largest economy dipped for the first time in 15 months while workers' hours and pay edged upward.
It said a net total of 247,000 jobs were lost last month, the fewest in a year and a drastic improvement from the 443,000 that vanished in June. Still, the job market remains shaky. A quarter-million lost jobs are a far cry from the employment growth needed to put the national economy on solid footing.
President Barack Obama has urged Americans to be patient and give time for his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending to take hold. Most of the money will flow in 2010.
Krugman said there was still room for the U.S. government to increase spending to boost growth, despite concerns over its swollen budget deficit.
Krugman, who teaches at Princeton University, won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences last year for his analysis of how economies of scale can affect international trade patterns. He also writes columns for The New York Times.
He said there was a need to restructure the global financial system and impose tighter regulations to avoid a repeat of the economic crisis, but expressed concern that the momentum for reforms appeared to be easing.
"We do not have the political will to do that just yet ... I suspect clever people can still make a lot of money from the financial system in the next few years," he warned.
Earlier, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak urged regulators worldwide to jointly create a compatible, sustainable and effective surveillance system to prevent future market crashes. These include keeping a close eye on risk-taking activities and having a common procedure for intervention if there are signs of irrational excess, he said.
"Over-reliance on self-regulation is a mistake," he said. "Global regulators should err on the side of investor protection and financial stability rather than rely on a 'buyer beware' regulatory regime."
Singapore's Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Hong Kong Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury K.C. Chan warned against being too hasty, saying greater regulation of financial institutions mustn't be at the expense of stifling innovation and growth. [/b]
"Champions aren't made in gyms. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them: A desire, a dream, a vision.
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LOSO
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New Bull Market confirmed !!!!
โพสต์ที่ 55
US recovery may be strongest since early 1980s--ECRI
Fri Aug 14, 2009 10:33am EDT
NEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - A U.S. future economic growth
gauge rose in the latest week, as its yearly growth rate surged
to a 26-year high, suggesting that recovery will commence at
the briskest pace in decades, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based
independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index
rose to a 47-week high of 123.9 in the week to Aug. 7 from a
downwardly revised 121.7 the prior week, which was originally
reported at 121.8.
Meanwhile, the index's annualized growth rate leapt to a
26-year high of 13.4 percent from last week's five-year high of
10.4 percent, which ECRI originally reported at 10.5 percent.
It was the index's highest yearly growth rate reading since
the week to Aug. 26, 1983, when it stood at 13.9 percent.
"With WLI growth surging, the odds are rising that the
early stage of this economic recovery will be stronger than any
since the early 1980s," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing
Director at ECRI.
Achuthan recently told Reuters that the national recovery
would be stronger than many expect, though signs of such strong
growth will not be apparent until sometime next year.
"Next year, looking back you'll see that GDP, industrial
production, sales, and even non-manufacturing jobs growth --
where 91 percent of Americans work -- began rising as recovery
took hold," Achuthan said.
(Reporting by Camille Drummond; Editing by Padraic Cassidy)
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsN ... 1420090814
Fri Aug 14, 2009 10:33am EDT
NEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - A U.S. future economic growth
gauge rose in the latest week, as its yearly growth rate surged
to a 26-year high, suggesting that recovery will commence at
the briskest pace in decades, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based
independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index
rose to a 47-week high of 123.9 in the week to Aug. 7 from a
downwardly revised 121.7 the prior week, which was originally
reported at 121.8.
Meanwhile, the index's annualized growth rate leapt to a
26-year high of 13.4 percent from last week's five-year high of
10.4 percent, which ECRI originally reported at 10.5 percent.
It was the index's highest yearly growth rate reading since
the week to Aug. 26, 1983, when it stood at 13.9 percent.
"With WLI growth surging, the odds are rising that the
early stage of this economic recovery will be stronger than any
since the early 1980s," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing
Director at ECRI.
Achuthan recently told Reuters that the national recovery
would be stronger than many expect, though signs of such strong
growth will not be apparent until sometime next year.
"Next year, looking back you'll see that GDP, industrial
production, sales, and even non-manufacturing jobs growth --
where 91 percent of Americans work -- began rising as recovery
took hold," Achuthan said.
(Reporting by Camille Drummond; Editing by Padraic Cassidy)
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsN ... 1420090814
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pk8
- สมาชิกสมาคมนักลงทุนเน้นคุณค่า
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New Bull Market confirmed !!!!
โพสต์ที่ 60
ภาคบริการเยอรมนี-ภาคการผลิตฝรั่งเศสขยายตัวเกินคาด ตอกย้ำความเชื่อมั่นวิกฤตศก.บรรเทา
สำนักข่าวอินโฟเควสท์ (IQ) -- 4 ชั่วโมง 45 นาทีที่แล้ว
อุตสาหกรรมการบริการของเยอรมนีและอุตสาหกรรมการผลิตของฝรั่งเศสขยายตัวเกินคาดในเดือนนี้ ส่งสัญญาณว่าภาวะเศรษฐกิจถดถอยครั้งรุนแรงสุดในรอบกว่า 60 ปีของยุโรปได้บรรเทาความรุนแรงลงแล้ว
โดยดัชนีอุตสาหกรรมการบริการของเยอรมนีปรับตัวสูงขึ้นแตะ 54.1 จุดในเดือนนี้ จาก 48.1 จุดในเดือนที่แล้ว ส่วนดัชนีภาคการผลิตของฝรั่งเศสบวกขึ้นแตะ 50.2 จุด จาก 48.1 จุด โดยตัวเลขเกิน 50 จุดหมายถึงมีการขยายตัว ผิดกับที่นักวิเคราะห์คาดว่าจะอยู่ต่ำกว่าระดับ 50 จุด ทั้งนี้ เงินยูโรแข็งค่าขึ้นหลังมีการเปิดเผยข้อมูลนี้
ในขณะเดียวกัน ดัชนีภาคการผลิตและบริการของกลุ่มประเทศยุโรปก็ปรับตัวสูงขึ้นเกินคาดในเดือนนี้ โดยดัชนีคอมโพสิตของอุตสาหกรรมทั้งสองภาคส่วนบวกขึ้นแตะ 50 จุดในเดือนนี้ จาก 47 จุดในเดือนที่แล้ว ซึ่งถือว่าเพิ่มขึ้นมากสุดนับตั้งแต่เดือนพฤษภาคมปีที่แล้ว
"ข้อมูลดังกล่าวสนับสนุนความเชื่อที่ว่าเศรษฐกิจยุโรปจะฟื้นตัวจากภาวะถดถอยในไตรมาส 3" คาร์สเทน เบรสกี นักเศรษฐศาสตร์จากบริษัท ไอเอ็นจี กรุ๊ป เอ็นวี ในบรัสเซล กล่าวกับบลูมเบิร์ก "อย่างไรก็ตาม ตอนนี้ยังเร็วไปที่จะฟันธงว่าเศรษฐกิจจะฟื้นตัวแน่นอนในช่วงเวลาดังกล่าว"
การที่บริษัทต่างๆ ในเยอรมนีมีรายได้มากขึ้นเป็นหลักฐานบ่งชี้ว่าเศรษฐกิจกำลังจะฟื้นตัว หลังจากที่รัฐบาลให้คำมั่นว่าจะทุ่มงบหลายพันล้านยูโรเพื่อกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจ ในขณะเดียวกันธนาคารกลางยุโรปก็ตรึงดอกเบี้ยไว้ที่ระดับต่ำสุดเป็นประวัติการณ์ พร้อมยืนยันว่าเศรษฐกิจผ่านพ้นช่วงที่เลวร้ายที่สุดมาแล้ว
ทั้งนี้ เศรษฐกิจเยอรมนีและฝรั่งเศสกลับมาขยายตัวอีกครั้งอย่างคาดไม่ถึงในไตรมาส 2 ที่ระดับ 0.3%
http://www.ryt9.com/s/iq03/633198/
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สำนักข่าวอินโฟเควสท์ (IQ) -- 4 ชั่วโมง 45 นาทีที่แล้ว
อุตสาหกรรมการบริการของเยอรมนีและอุตสาหกรรมการผลิตของฝรั่งเศสขยายตัวเกินคาดในเดือนนี้ ส่งสัญญาณว่าภาวะเศรษฐกิจถดถอยครั้งรุนแรงสุดในรอบกว่า 60 ปีของยุโรปได้บรรเทาความรุนแรงลงแล้ว
โดยดัชนีอุตสาหกรรมการบริการของเยอรมนีปรับตัวสูงขึ้นแตะ 54.1 จุดในเดือนนี้ จาก 48.1 จุดในเดือนที่แล้ว ส่วนดัชนีภาคการผลิตของฝรั่งเศสบวกขึ้นแตะ 50.2 จุด จาก 48.1 จุด โดยตัวเลขเกิน 50 จุดหมายถึงมีการขยายตัว ผิดกับที่นักวิเคราะห์คาดว่าจะอยู่ต่ำกว่าระดับ 50 จุด ทั้งนี้ เงินยูโรแข็งค่าขึ้นหลังมีการเปิดเผยข้อมูลนี้
ในขณะเดียวกัน ดัชนีภาคการผลิตและบริการของกลุ่มประเทศยุโรปก็ปรับตัวสูงขึ้นเกินคาดในเดือนนี้ โดยดัชนีคอมโพสิตของอุตสาหกรรมทั้งสองภาคส่วนบวกขึ้นแตะ 50 จุดในเดือนนี้ จาก 47 จุดในเดือนที่แล้ว ซึ่งถือว่าเพิ่มขึ้นมากสุดนับตั้งแต่เดือนพฤษภาคมปีที่แล้ว
"ข้อมูลดังกล่าวสนับสนุนความเชื่อที่ว่าเศรษฐกิจยุโรปจะฟื้นตัวจากภาวะถดถอยในไตรมาส 3" คาร์สเทน เบรสกี นักเศรษฐศาสตร์จากบริษัท ไอเอ็นจี กรุ๊ป เอ็นวี ในบรัสเซล กล่าวกับบลูมเบิร์ก "อย่างไรก็ตาม ตอนนี้ยังเร็วไปที่จะฟันธงว่าเศรษฐกิจจะฟื้นตัวแน่นอนในช่วงเวลาดังกล่าว"
การที่บริษัทต่างๆ ในเยอรมนีมีรายได้มากขึ้นเป็นหลักฐานบ่งชี้ว่าเศรษฐกิจกำลังจะฟื้นตัว หลังจากที่รัฐบาลให้คำมั่นว่าจะทุ่มงบหลายพันล้านยูโรเพื่อกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจ ในขณะเดียวกันธนาคารกลางยุโรปก็ตรึงดอกเบี้ยไว้ที่ระดับต่ำสุดเป็นประวัติการณ์ พร้อมยืนยันว่าเศรษฐกิจผ่านพ้นช่วงที่เลวร้ายที่สุดมาแล้ว
ทั้งนี้ เศรษฐกิจเยอรมนีและฝรั่งเศสกลับมาขยายตัวอีกครั้งอย่างคาดไม่ถึงในไตรมาส 2 ที่ระดับ 0.3%
http://www.ryt9.com/s/iq03/633198/
วันนี้หุ้นกลุ่มท่องเที่ยวเดินทางมากันหมดเลย...
สงสัยนักลงทุนเห็นแสงสว่างปลายอุโมงค์ชัดขึ้นเรื่อยๆมั้งครับ
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