ASUSTek (2357 TT)

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ASUSTek (2357 TT)

Posts by 6 Dimensions » Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:31 pm

รบกวน Admin ช่วยย้ายเข้าร้อยคนร้อยหุ้นต่างประเทศ ในประเทศ Taiwan ด้วยครับ (ยังไม่มีหุ้นในประเทศนี้เลย)

ขอนำข้อมูลจาก MorningStar มาบันทึกไว้ครับ
byJessica Yi
Associate Equity Analyst
Overview 

Profile: 

ASUSTeK Computer Inc., or Asus, is a Taiwanese manufacturer of consumer electronics and hardware. Founded in 1990, the company has long been known as a motherboard and PC component producer. The company has expanded to develop tablets and smartphones, as well as a diverse line of laptop, desktop, and netbook computers.



Analyst Note 08/14/2015 

Asustek’s second-quarter revenue rose by 4.1% year over year, to TWD 99.4 billion from TWD 95.5 billion. Revenue contributions from the company's PC business fell to 61% from 67% in the previous quarter, while contributions from the mobile business rose to 22% from 16%. The company’s gross margin notched 14.3%, roughly on par with the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 4.8%, slightly higher than the 4.6% level of a year earlier. However, due to a lower contribution from interest income, investment income and foreign exchange gain, net margin fell to 4.7% from 5.0% a year ago.

For the second quarter, the PC business shipped 4.8 million units, 4% lower than management’s guidance. However, shipment in the mobile business met management’s guidance of 6 million units. Specifically, smartphone shipment was 5 million units, 4.2% higher than the forecast. For the third quarter, management expects that shipment levels in the PC business and mobile business will rise by 13% and 30% from the previous quarter, respectively, with a 20% growth for smartphones. We expect the launch of new products with Microsoft Windows 10 to boost sales in the PC business in the short term. However, in the long term, weakening demand in the PC industry will likely limit the company's growth prospects in relation to its PC business. In addition, fierce competition in the smartphone market will continue to put downward pressure on the margins of the mobile business. As a result, we reiterate our conservative view of the company for the foreseeable future.


Investment Thesis 03/08/2015 

Asus’ tenure as a motherboard developer spans more than two decades. Now, the group is in the process of transitioning to the mobile business, while buoying its PC division with a diverse notebook lineup.

Asus' PC business is capitalizing on its position in emerging markets as it broadens its product portfolio. The group has achieved growth through aggressive, low pricing, and heavy investment. However, as the price war escalates, the group seeks to persevere through outstanding innovation, rather than low pricing. It expects to sustain growth in its mainstream product category and achieve explosive growth in its new product category, including ZenBook Pro, Chi, EeeBook and Chromebook. Management forecasts its PC business to achieve 15% compound average growth from 2013 to 2017. However, given growing competition, declining average selling prices, and unfavorable foreign exchange trends, we think these headwinds will limit the group’s growth prospects in the PC business.

Asus is expanding its mobile business rapidly, including smartphone and tablets, especially in Asia-Pacific. The firm aims to focus on innovation and the customer experience while controlling costs by reducing tablet model count. For its smartphone business, Asus achieved great success from ZenFone 1 in Asia-Pacific. We think it will continue the success through the launch of ZenFone 2 in Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the United States, based on the good performance of ZenFone 1. 

Going forward, management expects the mobile business to contribute 50% of total revenue by 2017, and for the smartphone business to be the company's growth driver. However, it may be difficult for latecomer Asus to emerge as a serious contender in the smartphone business, as the firm lacks first-mover advantage and strong brand reputation. In addition, it may achieve business growth at the expense of profit margin. As a result, we keep a conservative view on its transition to mobile from PC. Nonetheless, we think Asus’ presence in emerging markets should continue to pay dividends for the firm.


Economic Moat 03/08/2015 

While Asus has been able to compete in the intensely contested PC market, and has achieved rapid growth in the mobile business, we do not believe the firm boasts any meaningful competitive advantages. Consumer electronics companies often struggle to generate switching costs as movement between products is relatively simple for consumers, which also limits the ability of newer market entrants such as Asus to generate significant profit margins on its products. While we do believe Asus’ brand is receiving greater international exposure thanks to its focus on innovation and qualities, we do not believe the firm has enough clout to generate any sense of brand loyalty from customers.


Valuation 03/08/2015 

In 2007, Asus achieved remarkable revenue and profits as netbooks achieved dominance in mobile computing. However, the financial crisis and the ensuing release of the iPad sent revenue into meaningful decline during the next several years. Still, Asus was able to weather the storm by shoring up its costs to maintain margins, while the company worked to enter new markets. With the firm’s string of successful product launches in Ultrabooks, tablets and smartphones, it successfully recovered from the slump, with great improvement in revenue and profits. Revenue under the Asus brand has been continuously trending up, to TWD 436.3 billion in 2014 from TWD 248.2 billion during the 2009 trough, with net profits increasing to TWD 19.5 billion from TWD 12.5 billion. Now, Asus is still in the process of transitioning to mobile from PC. We believe the group could continue to capitalize on the opportunities in emerging markets. However, in the long term, our enthusiasm remains tempered. For Asus, fierce competition and rapidly evolving technologies will continue to pose challenges.


Risk 03/08/2015 

Technology products come with the inherent risks of a dynamic and evolving consumer landscape. Technological advancements and an influx of similar products across the market eliminate most brand recognition advantages. Asus has already endured the brunt of a technological shift, with its netbook line suffering at the hands of the tablet market. Most of Asus’ key product markets, such as Ultrabooks, tablets, smartphones and PC components, face stiff competition. Of note, Asus is a total newcomer to the smartphone market, and its market position could still be seeking stability.


Management 12/24/2012 

Asus has been guided by Chairman Jonney Shih since 1994. Shih was a key cog in Asus becoming a dominant motherboard producer before taking the company to new heights with netbooks and laptops in the late 2000s. Since 2008, his efforts have been bolstered by the addition of Jerry Shen as CEO. Shen and Shih oversaw the company’s transition from netbooks to tablets and other products in 2011, a move that has kept Asus competitive. Given their track records, we are confident in the abilities of Asus’ leaders moving forward.

Risk Management = Risk Measurement + Risk Controlling+ Risk Taking

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6 Dimensions
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Re: ASUSTek (2357 TT)

Posts by 6 Dimensions » Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:47 pm

ปัจจุบันรายได้ของบริษัทมาจาก 3 Product Lines ตามรูปครับ
Screenshot_2015-10-07-21-33-45_zed20151007_213615_30p.jpg
Screenshot_2015-10-07-21-33-45_zed20151007_213615_30p.jpg (32.47 KiB) Viewed 2504 times
PC Component โดยเฉพาะ Motherboard มี Market Share เป็นอันดับหนึ่งของโลก
(ข้อมูลจาก Annual Report)

กลุ่ม PC Notebook มี Market Share ปัจจุบันราวอันดับ 5 ของโลก
(ข้อมูลจาก http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3090817)
อย่างไรก็ดี อุตสาหกรรมนี้กำลังหดตัวต่อเนื่องจากการเข้ามาของ SmartPhone และ Tablet ในทศวรรษที่ผ่านมา

และกลุ่ม SmartPhone ซึ่งบริษัทเพิ่งเริ่มทำตลาดจริงจังในแบรนด์ ZenFone ที่ค่อนข้างประสบความสำเร็จเมื่อเปิดตัวในปีที่ผ่านมา และรุกต่อเนื่องในปีนี้

หน้า Investor Relations ของบริษัท
http://www.asus.com/Pages/Investor/
ดีมากครับ มี Quarter Presentation, WebCast รวมทั้ง Q&A Script ที่นักวิเคราะห์หลายสำนักได้ถาม CEO, CFO เอาไว้ก็นำมาลงอย่างละเอียด

ข้อมูล MarketCap, Stock Price, Ratio ต่างๆ ในปัจจุบัน ดูได้ที่
https://www.google.com/finance?cid=674388

Risk Management = Risk Measurement + Risk Controlling+ Risk Taking

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6 Dimensions
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Re: ASUSTek (2357 TT)

Posts by 6 Dimensions » Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:43 pm

งบย้อนหลัง 10Q
Screenshot_2015-10-07-22-14-52_zed20151007_223041_50p.jpg
Screenshot_2015-10-07-22-14-52_zed20151007_223041_50p.jpg (191.75 KiB) Viewed 2483 times
Screenshot_2015-10-07-22-15-06_zed20151007_223015_50p.jpg
Screenshot_2015-10-07-22-15-06_zed20151007_223015_50p.jpg (182.84 KiB) Viewed 2483 times
Screenshot_2015-10-07-22-14-32_zed20151007_224138_50p.jpg
Screenshot_2015-10-07-22-14-32_zed20151007_224138_50p.jpg (179.27 KiB) Viewed 2483 times

Risk Management = Risk Measurement + Risk Controlling+ Risk Taking

--------------------

6 Dimensions
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Re: ASUSTek (2357 TT)

Posts by 6 Dimensions » Thu Oct 08, 2015 9:40 am


Risk Management = Risk Measurement + Risk Controlling+ Risk Taking

--------------------

6 Dimensions
สมาชิกสมาคมนักลงทุนเน้นคุณค่า
Posts: 641
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2012 11:31 am

Re: ASUSTek (2357 TT)

Posts by 6 Dimensions » Thu Oct 08, 2015 9:43 am

http://www.valueline.com/Stocks/Industr ... hXXIOikfMI

Industry Analysis: Computer and Peripherals


The Computer and Peripherals Industry is composed of a diverse group of companies. It produces a wide range of products for sale to just about all businesses and consumers. The industry tends to trail the economic cycle, and is very competitive.

Products
This industry markets a wide range of products and services, many of which are tied to mainframe and server computers, personal computers, and storage devices. A number of offerings include gear to connect this hardware, both within a company and between businesses, suppliers, customers, and consumers. Keyboards and trackballs are other products, for example. In addition, some of the hardware providers offer services, such as installing and managing a business’ information technology operations, or hosting applications on an enterprise’s own computers that can be accessed by its customers. Others in the industry are wholesale distributors of computer products and services.

Customer Base
The customer base is as diverse as the industry. Some in the industry design and manufacture products that are sold to other industry participants. Most, though, market to businesses, both in the United States and overseas; federal, state, local, and foreign governments; and consumers. One thing investors should look at is customer concentration. If one or a few customers account for a large proportion of a company’s business, it usually will be noted in the business description box in the middle of the Value Line page. Sometimes there are only a few customers for a product, so a concentrated customer base may be unavoidable. Still, there is less risk of a major falloff in revenue from the loss of an account if the customer base is broad.

The Top Line
This is a growth industry. Businesses and governments have long been computerizing more and more of their work to increase competitiveness and efficiency. And, with the rise of the Internet, home computers, used to stay connected with friends and business, have become a necessity. The market should continue to grow. Businesses have to store and manage an increasing amount of data because of regulatory requirements and competitive needs. Too, whereas in the past, the data stored was primarily words and numbers, which take up relatively little storage space, now more capacity-hungry audio and video material is being computerized and stored.

It should be noted that this industry is somewhat recession-resistant, since many of its products and services can save money. Still, these companies certainly are not immune to economic downturns, since users can postpone buying a new computer and, as employees are laid off, fewer new machines are needed. Spending on computing gear usually holds up relatively well in the early months of a downturn, probably as already budgeted money is spent. Conversely, the industry’s revenue growth often lags coming out of a recession, presumably as businesses hold off making commitments for new systems until they are sure things are again on an upswing.
In considering individual companies, investors should focus on sales growth, since the members of this group vary so much in size. The Annual Rates box on the left side of the Value Line page has data on past and predicted sales growth rates. Without healthy top-line advances, consistent earnings gains are tough to come by.
Investors should also note the effect of foreign exchange on this group’s revenue. When the dollar is weak, it makes this nation’s products more attractive to overseas buyers. Furthermore, those sales are inflated when they are translated back into dollars. On the other hand, a strengthening dollar makes the industry’s products more expensive overseas, and revenues are further depressed when the currencies are translated into dollars. So, when considering a company as an investment, attention should be paid to the percentage of its revenue that is produced outside the U.S. What’s more, a broad exposure to world markets can cushion a weak market at home.

Expenses
Again, because of the diverse nature of this industry, operating expense as a percent of revenue will vary widely from company to company. In general, there are economies of scale, so larger companies should have wider operating margins. But that won’t always hold true, since some companies may farm out the manufacturing of gear. Too, many of these businesses utilize labor in low-cost locations. One particular expense bears note. Usually, when research and development outlays account for a large proportion of revenue, this indicates that a company is investing to grow. If R&D is a significant part of a company’s total spending, it will be noted in the business description.

Conclusion
This industry is not for income seekers since very few of these companies pay dividends. Investors also should be aware that earnings predictability isn’t a strong point. That said, there are often a good number of timely equities in this group, and quite a few that have attractive long-term price-appreciation potential.
Investors should note that acquisitions are important contributors to growth for many companies in the industry. Buyouts can broaden the product line, increase the customer base, offer cross-selling opportunities, and be a source of additional service or maintenance fees. However, future acquisitions are not included in our sales and earnings projections because of the impossibility of predicting their timing or scope, so our figures may well be understated.

Risk Management = Risk Measurement + Risk Controlling+ Risk Taking

--------------------

6 Dimensions
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Re: ASUSTek (2357 TT)

Posts by 6 Dimensions » Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:00 pm

สำหรับ ASUSTek มุมมองส่วนตัวคร่าวๆ นับว่าเป็นบริษัทที่พอใช้ได้
ภาพรวมรายได้ธุรกิจ บริษัทยังมีรายได้เติบโตเล็กน้อย กำไร และกระแสเงินสดจากการดำเนินงานมีสเถียรภาพ ท่ามกลางการแข่งขันอันดุเดือดในอุตสาหกรรม

ธุรกิจหลักปัจจุบันแบ่งเป็นสองกลุ่มคือ กลุ่ม PC ที่ถดถอยลงทุกวัน แต่บริษัทมีความสามารถในการแข่งขัน ยังรักษา MarketShare รวมทั้งความสามารถในการทำกำไรไว้ได้ ทั้งกลุ่ม PC Mainstream และกลุ่ม Luxury (GamePC ในชื่อ Republic of Gamers, Ultrabook ในชื่อ ZenBook ซึ่งรายได้เติบโตมากเป็นพระเอกของบริษัท บริษัทกล่าวว่าความสำเร็จนี้เกิดจาก จากจุดเด่นที่บริษัททุ่มงบ R&D เป็นจำนวนมหาศาลในแต่ละปี คือราวๆ 10,000++ TWD ซึ่งมากกว่างบสวทช. บ้านเราทั้งประเทศ) อุตสาหกรรม PC นี้คู่แข่งทยอยถอนตัวเรื่อยๆ (ล่าสุด Sony เลิกถาวรและ Samsung ประกาศถอนตัวในตลาดยุโรป) ปัจจุบันเหลือผู้เล่นรายหลักๆ คือ Lenovo, Dell, HP, Asus, Apple, Acer ... แต่ Acer ไม่สามารถรักษาความสามารถในการทำกำไรไว้ได้ กำไรปริ่มๆ หรือขาดทุนสลับกัน ล่าสุดประกาศพิจารณารับข้อเสนอ Take Over อาจมีแนวโน้มเป็นผู้แพ้ในตลาดนี้อีกราย

ในตลาด Mobile พระเอกคือ ZenFone ที่ประสบความสำเร็จเป็นอย่างมากในปี 2014 และคาดว่า ZenFone2 จะสำเร็จเช่นเดียวกันในปี 2015 สินค้าของบริษัทมีจุดเด่นในสายตาของผู้บริโภคคือ ได้โทรศัพท์ที่มีความสามารถสูงกว่าในราคาที่เท่ากัน ชนิดที่ว่าขนาดโทรศัพท์ยี่ห้อดังจากจีน Xiaomi และ Huawei ยังต้องเกรง (เพื่อนๆ สามารถเช็คราคาและ spec ได้จาก http://www.aobmobile.com ครับ) โดยถึงแม้บริษัทจะให้คุณค่าของผลิตภัณฑ์ที่มากกว่าคู่แข่ง บริษัทก็ยังรักษาความสามารถในการทำกำไรไว้ได้ ทั้งนี้ CEO เล่าว่าเกิดจากกลยุทธ Word-of-Mouth Marketing ที่ให้ของดีแก่ผู้บริโภคทำให้ประทับใจและเล่ากันปากต่อปากโดยไม่ต้องลงทุนค่าโฆษณา (คล้ายกรณีของ Terminal 21 และ Zara) ทำให้ค่า SG&A ของบริษัทต่ำกว่าอุตสาหกรรม และบริษัทคาดว่าจะเพิ่มอัตรากำไรได้ขึ้นไปอีกถ้าได้ Economy of Scale ในปี 2015-2016

ในแง่มูลค่า บริษัทแทบไม่มีหนี้สินที่มีภาระดอกเบี้ยเลย และมีเงินสดสุทธิราวๆ 80000ล้านTWD ของ MarketCap 220000ล้านTWD เป็นบริษัทที่เอาใจใส่ผู้ถือหุ้นดีเยี่ยม ให้ข้อมูลนักลงทุนอย่างละเอียด กำไรทั้งหมดนำมาจ่ายปันผลและซื้อหุ้นคืนเป็นประจำ
คิดจาก P/E ปัจจุบัน ณ ราคา 300TWDต่อหุ้น ได้ที่ 11 เท่า (แต่ถ้าหัก NetCash ออกจะเหลือราว 7 เท่า) ในกรณีที่ราคาเผอิญลงมา 200 ต้นๆ TWD
P/E บริษัทหลังหัก NetCash จะเหลือประมาณ 5 เท่าน่าจะมี Margin of Safety พอสมควรครับ

อัตราแลกเปลี่ยน TWD : THB อยู่ที่ราวๆ 1-1.1 มาหลายปี ก็นับว่าเงินบาทยังไม่อ่อนมากเมื่อเทียบสกุลเงินไต้หวัน

Risk Management = Risk Measurement + Risk Controlling+ Risk Taking

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6 Dimensions
สมาชิกสมาคมนักลงทุนเน้นคุณค่า
Posts: 641
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2012 11:31 am

Re: ASUSTek (2357 TT)

Posts by 6 Dimensions » Sat Oct 10, 2015 10:43 am

ข้อมูลคู่แข่งในอุตฯ PC

lenovo
http://www.lenovo.com/ww/lenovo/investor_relations.html

acer
http://www.acer-group.com/public/Invest ... erview.htm

hp
http://h30261.www3.hp.com

ส่วน dell ออกจากตลาดไปแล้วเนื่องจาก Mr.Dell ให้เหตุผลว่าความรีบร้อนที่อยากให้หุ้นขึ้นโดยเร็วของผู้ถือหุ้น กดดันให้บริษัทไม่สามารถดำเนินแผนการที่ long term sustainable growth ได้ถนัดครับ

ในเมืองไทยไม่แน่ใจว่ามีโบรกไหนที่สามารถซื้อหุ้นที่ไต้หวันได้บ้าง เท่าที่ทราบมี โนมูระ ครับ

Risk Management = Risk Measurement + Risk Controlling+ Risk Taking

--------------------

6 Dimensions
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Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2012 11:31 am

Re: ASUSTek (2357 TT)

Posts by 6 Dimensions » Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:12 am

Acer, Asustek PC shipments drop in EMEA in Q3

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/busi ... sustek.htm

CNA
October 20, 2015, 12:09 am TWN

TAIPEI -- Inc(宏碁). and Asustek (華碩) Computer Inc. continued to struggle with falling PC shipments in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) in the third quarter as the two Taiwanese companies worked to reduce their inventory.

According to an Oct. 16 report by research firm International Data Corp. (IDC), PC shipments in the EMEA region declined 23 percent year-on-year to 18.4 million units in the July-September quarter of 2015.

The market was weakened by ongoing currency fluctuations that affected a number of countries, and by political instability in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, IDC said.

Meanwhile, channel players across the region focused on reducing their inventory of Microsoft Corp.'s Bing program that was designed to promote low-cost Windows 8 computers, in preparation for shipments of new products for the holiday season in the fourth quarter, IDC said.

Although shipments of Windows 10 machines started to increase in September, demand for the new devices did not pick up significantly due to a free upgrade offered by Microsoft, which prompted retailers to focus on selling the Windows 8 products in stock, IDC added.

All of the top five PC vendors in the EMEA region posted a decline in shipments amid these difficult market conditions, with the top three players — Hewlett-Packard Co. (HP), Lenovo Group Ltd. and Dell Inc. — recording annualized shipment declines of 17.1 percent, 20.1 percent and 11.3 percent, respectively.

Acer ranked fourth in the market but its PC shipments fell 38 percent year-on-year, while Asustek in fifth position saw a 25.5 percent decrease in shipments, IDC's data showed.

IDC said that Acer was focused on stock clearance during the third quarter to create space for new products for the year-end holiday season, hoping that its efforts would lead to good results in the Windows 10 device segment.

Asustek's efforts to reduce its inventory also led to its cautious shipments to distributors and a consequent decline in the company's total shipments, IDC said.

By market share, HP remained the biggest player in the EMEA region with a 23.7 percent share, followed by Lenovo with 20.1 percent, Dell 10.1 percent, Acer 9.6 percent and Asustek 8.2 percent, according to IDC.

Risk Management = Risk Measurement + Risk Controlling+ Risk Taking

--------------------

6 Dimensions
สมาชิกสมาคมนักลงทุนเน้นคุณค่า
Posts: 641
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2012 11:31 am

Re: ASUSTek (2357 TT)

Posts by 6 Dimensions » Tue Oct 27, 2015 5:08 pm

Asustek tops list of best Taiwanese brands for third straight yearhttp://m.focustaiwan.tw/news/aeco/201510270008.aspx

Risk Management = Risk Measurement + Risk Controlling+ Risk Taking

--------------------

6 Dimensions
สมาชิกสมาคมนักลงทุนเน้นคุณค่า
Posts: 641
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2012 11:31 am

Re: ASUSTek (2357 TT)

Posts by 6 Dimensions » Sat Nov 14, 2015 1:40 pm

งบ 3Q58 มาแล้วครับ ใน presentation ฉบับนี้มีข้อมูลใหม่น่าสนใจหลายจุดทีเดียว
http://asus.todayir.com.tw/attachment/2 ... 243_en.pdf

เริ่มจากงบกำไรขาดทุนก่อน
ยอดขายไตรมาสนี้ทำได้ที่ 110 Bil NTD ซึ่งลดลงเล็กน้อย 2% YoY แต่เพิ่มขึ้นถึง 12% QoQ
กำไรขั้นต้นอยู่ที่ 15 Bil NTD เติบโต 2% YoY และ 12%QoQ (YoY GPM ดีขึ้น)
อย่างไรก็ดี Operating Profit อยู่ที่ 5Bil. NTD ซึ่งลดลงจาก 5.3 Bil NTD ในปีก่อนเล็กน้อย