MAR - Marriott

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PK-TYW
สมาชิกสมาคมนักลงทุนเน้นคุณค่า
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Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:00 pm

MAR - Marriott

Posts by PK-TYW » Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:02 pm

ขออณุญาตสร้างกระทู้ใหม่นะครับ หุ้นMAR - Marriott ธุรกิจโรงแรม5ดาวที่ทุกคนรู้จักกันดีในbrandของ Marriott, Sheraton, The Ritz-Carlton

official website
https://marriott.gcs-web.com/investor-relations

Annual Report 2019
https://marriott.gcs-web.com/static-fil ... 6588f43130

Presentation Q2 20
Webcast: https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/p3vws6z5
Report: https://marriott.gcs-web.com/static-fil ... 88d6260e90


แลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นกันได้เลยครับ :D


PK-TYW
สมาชิกสมาคมนักลงทุนเน้นคุณค่า
Posts: 1550
Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:00 pm

Re: MAR - Marriott

Posts by PK-TYW » Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:13 pm

ประเด็นที่น่าสนใจ

-ราคาหุ้น-35% ytd เพราะพิษ covid-19
-รรขาดทุนในQ2 ไม่เยอะมากถ้าเทียบกับsize (ขาดทุนน้อยกว่าmint แต่ Marใหญ่กว่าMint10เท่า)
-q3คาดว่าจะขาดทุนไม่เยอะ และq4มีลุ้นทำกำไร
-OCF เป็นบวกในปี20 และปีก่อนๆOCFดีมากจนต้องทำshare repurshaceทุกปีปีละ1000-3000ล้านเหรียญ
-Q2มี Cash2.3Billion ดึงเงินมาจากลูกค้าครับ น่าจะผ่านcrisisได้สบายๆ
-q2 total room 1.4M, 7484 Hotel (growth potentialมีเยอะ pipeline,มีอีกเยอะมาก)
-The company added more than 11,400 rooms globally during the second quarter,
including roughly 2,000 rooms converted from competitor brands and approximately
4,700 rooms in international markets. Net rooms grew 4.1 percent from a year ago;
-At quarter‐end, Marriott’s worldwide development pipeline totaled nearly 3,000
hotels and approximately 510,000 rooms, including roughly 28,000 rooms approved,
but not yet subject to signed contracts. Over 230,000

-Business modelต่างจากรรในไทยที่เน้นสร้างเองบริหารเอง ของMarriott 99%+เป็นManagedและFranchised ครับ เรียกได้ว่าธุรกิจความเสี่ยงน้อยมากเน้นเก็บค่าธรรมเนียมและค่าบริหาร ในสภาวะปกติกำไรทุกปี


PK-TYW
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Re: MAR - Marriott

Posts by PK-TYW » Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:15 pm



PK-TYW
สมาชิกสมาคมนักลงทุนเน้นคุณค่า
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Re: MAR - Marriott

Posts by PK-TYW » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:03 am

Marriott built its own ‘Airbnb’ before coronavirus crashed business travel. Did it help?

Marriott International’s Homes & Villas platform has grown, with 90% of stays on the Airbnb competitor coming from the Bonvoy rewards program members.
This summer was the highest in gross revenue since the 2019 launch – bookings increased by 700%, revenue by more than 800%.
As Airbnb preps an IPO many experts thought the coronavirus had made impossible, Marriott’s success in alternative lodging can’t make up for the traditional hotel industry challenges posed by the pandemic.



Marriott International began its push back against the success of Airbnb in Spring 2019 with Marriott Homes & Villas, a luxury property lodging service that offered customers a private residence alternative to hotel rooms. Bookings are up, by a lot, during Covid-19, as more travelers flock to individual properties. That’s made the Airbnb rival a rare bright spot in business results for the hotel giant, which like its peers, has seen a massive falloff in traditional room bookings as business travel, travel to urban centers, and international vacation travel dwindled during the pandemic.

From May to August, Marriott saw record performances in top booking days, up to 2x historical highs, according to data the company provided to CNBC. This summer has been highest in gross revenue since launch, with bookings up by 700% over last summer, and revenue increasing by more than 800%. Since the launch, the number of properties on the platform has grown 5x from about 2,000 to more than 10,000 in 250 markets.


“We knew it was an offering that our customers wanted but we didn’t have,” Stephanie Linnartz, group president of Marriott’s consumer operations, technology and emerging businesses, had said in an interview with CNBC shortly before the Covid outbreak.

The home sharing program started as a pilot in 2017 after Marriott learned that close to 30% of its members had stayed in home rentals in the past year. The pilot started with just a few homes in Europe.

Fighting Airbnb won’t move the hotel needle

But for Wall Street analysts — and even for Marriott management — Homes & Villas is a small silver lining in relation to the massive decline in business for the traditional hotels concentrated in urban areas and overseas travel destinations. Pre-Covid, it could easily seem like Airbnb was the existential threat to the lodging sector. Now, getting the core accomodations back on track, and getting the traditional portfolio of properties aligned with a changed world, is the challenge that demands their full attention.

“It’s tiny. It doesn’t move the needle for these companies,” said Patrick Scholes, managing director of lodging and experiential leisure equity research at Truist Securities. “They will have to make significant further investments to move the needle.”

“It’s an afterthought,” said Dan Wasiolek, senior equity analyst at Morningstar covering the travel industry. “We’re talking about 10,000 homes versus 7 million listings on Airbnb. And Booking Holdings has a similar amount. ... Even before the pandemic Marriott was just dipping its toes and doing it from an organic basis, using its boutique Tribute brand to facilitate high-end homes and experiences,” he said.

Marriott management has not said anything to the contrary, telling Wall Street in the past that Homes & Villas remains insignificant as far as its earnings outlook, and so small in relation to the rest of the business that analysts should not “get too hung up on it,” Scholes recalled of earnings call commentary.

Marriott CEO Arne Sorenson told analysts on the company’s recent August earnings calls that the Homes & Villas business has benefitted from three trends: leisure, drive-to and “whole home” preferences.

“If you can give me a vacation home on the beach or in New England or someplace I can drive to, then I know that I can control my environment, I can control my transportation and it suits my purpose because it’s a leisure trip anyway. And so generally that has been a positive thing, although to state the obvious, it is a very small part of our business,” the Marriott CEO said.

“They have bigger fish to fry right now than growing out Homes & Villas,” the Truist analyst said. “Marriott and others had significant layoffs and the employees left are up to their eyeballs with existing work and not new projects. So they may have to hit the pause button on new ideas.”

The company has had to furlough thousands of employees during the pandemic and also is in the midst of corporate layoffs.

After the March 2020 decline due to Covid-19 concerns, vacation rentals rebounded heading into the traditional peak summer travel season, and by mid-summer the vacation rental occupancy increased and approached 2019 levels. While vacation rental occupancy rebounded to 62%, hotels trailed with occupancy of 37.6%, according to lodging consultant Amadeus Hospitality data.

Amadeus travel consultant data on hotels and vacation rentals during Covid
There were simultaneous March 2020 declines due to Covid-19 impacting vacation rentals and hotels, but vacation rentals rebounded heading into the traditional peak summer travel season.
Amadeus
The bet on an “Airbnb-like’ model may yet pay off for the hotel giant, but right now, Marriott management has its hands full just trying to figure out how to come out financially secure on the other side of Covid.

“Liquidity-wise, until there is visibility on moving past Covid, the focus needs to be on the balance sheet,” Wasiolek said. “And visibility doesn’t improve until there is herd immunity or a vaccine.”

Hotels were healthy before the pandemic, but AirBnB’s rapid growth from 2013 to 2017 did “cannibalize” some hotel industry growth, said Kevin Kopelman, senior analyst at Cowen, in an interview from before the coronavirus decimated hotels. As AirBnB’s growth moderated, that cannibalization had slowed, but some cannibalization continued in the period leading up to Covid.

Homes & Villas was not the only newer offering Marriott pursued as the travel landscape shifted, some less well-positioned in the current moment.

Marriott invested in PlacePass, a Boston-based platform that lists tours and activities, in 2017. Marriott also said last August that it was getting into the all-inclusive resort space. In addition, the company unveiled the Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection, which offers cruises on one of three 190-meter luxury yachts. Some newer efforts came as a result of the merger with Starwood, which had the Moments platform offering access to events like concerts and cooking classes.

Amid the pandemic, it’s no surprise that the Moments platform is not a focus, and the cruises are not yet ready to start booking passengers.

There is a desire to travel ingrained in human nature and people will want to travel, and once they can from a safety and money perspective, they will return.
Dan Wasiolek
MORNINGSTAR ANALYST
Marriott also invested in start-ups and incubators in recent years. Two years ago, it partnered with Accenture and 1776 to incubate travel and hospitality start-ups in hopes of fast tracking innovation. Ideas ranged from loyalty programs to better booking processes to ways to maximize local activities during a hotel stay, though that program is now closed.

Some investments in technology need to be made to survive in a tech-centric era, when conditions do return to normal. A recent study from Google Travel and McKinsey found that consumers looking for a hotel now peruse 45 digital touchpoints when researching a hotel, up from 39 touchpoints in 2017. That research takes place in 60 sessions over 36 days on average. The research also found that 70% of travelers don’t have a brand in mind when starting a Google search for a hotel.

The travel industry needs to offer more of an experience, not just shopping for three nights in a hotel and the future will still be about personalization and technology, said John Hach, senior industry analyst with consulting firm Amadeus Hospitality. Companies are using browsing data and other information to deliver personalized recommendations and better understand both the context of the search and the consumer.

“Start-ups have a lot of momentum, speed and agility but also different challenges. We are finding ways for a bigger company and startup to work together to drive amazing customer experience…that’s a key reason why we do what we do,” Linnartz said in the interview earlier this year.


PK-TYW
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Re: MAR - Marriott

Posts by PK-TYW » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:11 pm

Is Marriott Stock a Buy?
COVID-19 has had a devastating effect on Marriott's results. Is now a good time to jump in?

Lawrence Rothman
Lawrence Rothman, CFA
(TMFLarryrothman)
Sep 9, 2020 at 12:00PM
Author Bio
The pandemic has obviously had a major effect on our everyday lives. While its effect on people's health is the most important one, efforts to control the virus have curtailed business and personal travel, hurting the lodging industry.

Naturally, Marriott International's (NASDAQ:MAR) results were not spared. With the stock price down more than 30% this year, is this a buying opportunity?

An empty hotel lobby.
IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.

Still economically sensitive
Marriott has an "asset-lite" approach whereby it owns very few properties -- less than 1% of its 1.4 million rooms. The remaining 99% are either franchised, or Marriott manages the property.

When Marriott franchises a hotel, it receives fees based on the property's revenue. Under management agreements, it earns a base fee that is a percentage of revenue and an incentive fee that is a piece of the profit.

Certainly, since these are based on how well a property performs, these will fluctuate with the economic cycle. However, Marriott is not responsible for the hotel's operating expenses or capital improvements, which typically provides more financial flexibility.


Of course, these aren't normal times. Occupancy levels improved as time went on, from an abysmal 11% in mid-April, but it was still a low 34% at the start of August. The company is also working with hotel owners and franchisees, including deferring charges. While ensuring their survival benefits Marriott in the long run, it does mean less cash flow right now.

With many properties forced to close, Marriott's second-quarter revenue plummeted more than 70% versus a year ago to $1.5 million.

The company does have some geographic diversity, which should help as regions recover from the pandemic and economically at different rates. For instance, Marriott's Greater China area, the first place affected by COVID-19, started experiencing higher demand and all previously closed hotels have now been reopened. Still, the company is heavily reliant on North America, which was responsible for over 80% of last year's revenue.

A lot of uncertainty
Management has addressed its costs, including furloughing workers, reducing work weeks, looking for volunteers to leave, and layoffs. Clearly, the last step means it doesn't expect a quick rebound. As Leeny Oberg, Marriott's chief financial officer, stated on the second-quarter earnings call: "The extent of the decline in our business and our expectation that it will take time for demand to return fully require these measures."


The pandemic is still causing governments and companies to keep certain restrictions in place. Until there is an effective vaccine that receives various governmental approvals and there is widespread access and acceptance among the world population, hotel demand is likely to remain subdued.

If this was merely a cyclical downturn, the stock would present an opportunity for investors willing to wait out the storm. But, with so much uncertainty created by the pandemic and the effect on travel, along with potentially permanent changes to business trips as companies continue adapting technology, you should sit on the sidelines for now until the picture becomes clearer


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