PM

แหล่งรวบรวมข้อมูลของหุ้นต่างๆ All for one, one for all
(ข้อมูลตั้งแต่ก่อตั้งเว็บ จนถึง 30 กันยายน 2555 ห้องนี้อ่านได้อย่างเดียวไม่สามารถ post ได้)
janelovehoon
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PM

Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 1:49 am

--------------------------------------
สวัสดีค่ะพี่ๆ เพื่อนๆ ชาว tvi
ไม่ได้เข้ามานานเลยนะคะ
สบายดีกันทุกท่านนะคะ
--------------------------------------
ระยะหลังไป trade TFEX ซะเยอะค่ะ
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วันนี้มีคำถามมาปรึกษาค่ะ
พอดีได้ quato หุ้น IPO: PM มาพอสมควร
อยากถามว่าถ้าเป็นพี่ๆ เพื่อนๆ จะจองดีไหมคะ

ข้อมูล ด้านล่างนะคะ
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
บริษัท พรีเมียร์ มาร์เก็ตติ้ง จำกัด (มหาชน) หรือ PM ผู้นำสินค้าขนมขบเคี้ยว โดยเฉพาะปลาสวรรค์ "ทาโร" ("ทาโร" เป็นยี่ห้อดังที่สุดในประเทศไทย สำหรับกลุ่มผู้บริโภคขนมขบเคี้ยวประเภทปลาเส้น โดย"ทาโร" ครองส่วนแบ่งตลาดสูงสุดในตลาดปลาเส้นที่ 70% และยอดขาย"ทาโร" คิดเป็น 60% ของยอดขายสินค้าอุปโภคทั้งหมดของPM คิดเป็น 35% ของยอดขายรวมของบริษัท) จะกระจายหุ้น เสนอขายแก่ประชาชนครั้งแรก (IPO) 215 ล้านหุ้น


janelovehoon
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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 1:50 am

ดร.สมชาย ชุณหรัศมิ์ กรรมการผู้จัดการ บมจ.พรีเมียร์ มาร์เก็ตติ้ง ให้สัมภาษณ์ คอลัมน์ "คัมปะนี วิสิต" โดยคาดว่าจะได้เงินจากการกระจายหุ้น 500-600 ล้านบาท และเงินส่วนใหญ่มีแผนนำไปชำระหนี้      ส่งผลให้ ลดภาระดอกเบี้ยจ่ายได้ถึง 20 ล้านบาทต่อปี จากปัจจุบันที่มีอัตราดอกเบี้ยเงินกู้ 7% ต่อปี ส่วนเงินเพิ่มทุนที่เหลือใช้ในการขยายธุรกิจ

เมื่อกล่าวถึงจุดแข็งของหุ้นPM ดร.สมชาย กล่าวว่า คือ กำไรที่เติบโตต่อเนื่องและการเป็นหุ้นปันผล นอกจากนี้แวลู(มูลค่าเพิ่มของหุ้น)ที่เกิดขึ้นในอนาคตก็อาจจะมาจากการหาคู่ค้าเพิ่ม

"คาดว่าผลการดำเนินงานปี 2551 บริษัทจะสามารถจ่ายเงินปันผลได้ (มีนโยบายจ่ายปันผลไม่น้อยกว่า 50 % ของกำไรสุทธิ )หลังจากล้างขาดทุนสะสมได้หมด 500 กว่าล้านบาท"

สำหรับผลการดำเนินงาน ปี 2550 บริษัทมีรายได้รวม 2,794 ล้านบาท เติบโตจากปี 2549 ในอัตรา 14 % และมีกำไรสุทธิ 189 ล้านบาท เพิ่ม 28 %จากปี 2549 ซึ่งมีกำไรสุทธิ 148 ล้านบาท มีอัตรากำไรขั้นต้น 25-25% นอกจากนี้บริษัทรับรู้กำไรจากการขายหุ้นที่ถืออยู่ในบมจ.พรีเมียร์ เอ็นเตอร์ไพรซ์ (PE ) 72 ล้านบาท และในปี 2551 มีแผนทยอยขายหุ้นที่ถืออยู่ในPE ทั้งหมด 145 ล้านหุ้น ดังนั้นหุ้นPM จึงมีมูลค่าแฝงจากการขายหุ้นPE ด้วย จากต้นทุนที่ถืออยู่ 25 สตางค์ต่อหุ้น

ส่วนแนวโน้มผลการดำเนินงานของPM ใน 1-3 ปีข้างหน้า ดร.สมชาย คาดว่า รายได้จะเติบโตเฉลี่ย 10 % ต่อปี เช่นเดียวกับในช่วง 4 ปีที่ผ่านมา (พ.ศ.2547-2550) ที่อุตสาหกรรมสแน็ก เติบโตประมาณ 10% แต่บริษัท เติบโต 15% และคาดว่าปี 2551 จะขยายตัวต่อเนื่อง

บทวิเคราะห์บริษัทหลักทรัพย์(บล.)เอเชีย พลัส จำกัด (มหาชน) ระบุว่า การเติบโตของ PM สอดคล้องกับ อุตสาหกรรมขนมขบเคี้ยวที่เฉลี่ย 10% ต่อปี โดยบริษัทเน้นกลยุทธ์เข้าถึงลูกค้า อย่างทั่วถึง ผ่านเครือข่ายร้านค้ากว่า 30,000 แห่งทั่วประเทศ

ส่วนธุรกิจรอง คือ ผลิตภัณฑ์ปลาทูน่า ยังได้รับแรงกดดันจากราคาวัตถุดิบที่ผันผวน และทรงตัวในระดับสูงต่อเนื่อง

อย่างไรก็ตามบล.เอเซีย พลัสฯ ระบุว่า PM มีสถานะการเงินแข็งแกร่งหลัง IPO เงินที่ได้จากการเพิ่มทุน ซึ่งคาดว่าจะทำให้สัดส่วนหนี้สินต่อทุน(D/E ) ลดลงมาอยู่ที่ 1.1 เท่า ขณะเดียวกัน คาดหวังว่าการขายหุ้นราคา IPO ที่สูงกว่าราคาพาร์ จะทำให้มีส่วนล้ำมูลค่าหุ้นบางส่วน ที่จะสามารถนำไปล้างขาดทุนสะสมได้ แม้ไม่สามารถล้างขาดทุนสะสมได้ทั้งหมด แต่จะทำให้ส่วนผู้ถือหุ้นของบริษัท สามารถพลิกกลับมาเป็นบวกได้อีกครั้ง

"คาด PM มีกำไรสุทธิเติบโตเฉลี่ย 10% ต่อปี ตั้งแต่ปี 2552 เป็นต้นไป และคาดหวังว่า จะจ่ายเงินปันผลได้ในปี 2552 เป็นต้นไป ในอัตรา 0.21 บาทต่อหุ้น"บทวิเคราะห์บล.เอเซีย พลัสฯ ระบุ


janelovehoon
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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:12 am

Bualuang Securities
----------------------------------
Premier Marketing Plc  
Brand value-building with TARO
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Foods & Drinks
BUY
Target: 4.28
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TARO is the big fish of fish snacks: TARO hasby farthe strongest consumer brand recognition of any fish snack brand in Thailand. It has a 70% market share of the fish snack category and accounts for 7% of all snacks sold in Thailand. TARO represents 60%
of PMs consumer product sales, 35% of consolidated sales. TAROs
brand value is a key PM investment theme.  
 Strong distribution channels: PM distributes effectively through
both modern trade and traditional channels, covering more than
30,000 outlets nationwide, resulting in sustained sales growth (both
TARO and other products) at 8-11% a year, FY07-08. Furthermore, it
is enhanced by 13% annual fish snack consumption growth, FY07-
08, greater health-consciousness and a government ban on sales of
junk snacks in schools.
 Diversified risk via domestic & overseas businesses: Domestic
businesses TARO, Corifin-C and Kings Kitchen under PM, along
with being a strategic partner with Calbee and a major distributor for
other consumer productsare compensated by PCIs tuna exports.    
 Secured tuna sales to Nichimo: Canned tuna exports to Japan
are growing at 5-6% a year. Sales growth will be partly enhanced by
the JTEPA bilateral trade agreement, signed last November. Nichimo,
which represents 50% of PCIs canned tuna sales, has made a long-
term commitment to the two firms commercial partnership.  
 Solid core profit growth of 11% in FY08: We forecast 8% YoY
consolidated sales growth for FY08, underpinned by 11% and 6%
YoY sales growth of consumer and tuna products, respectively. GM
should be sustained by cost-saving measures, such as use of
varieties of fish sourcing and because as part of strategic partnership
agreement, Nichimo is responsible for higher tuna prices. FX risk is
lessened by natural hedging and the use of hedging instruments.      
 Strengthened financials: We expect a low debt/equity ratio by
YE08 after debt is paid down using IPO proceeds. Positive
shareholder equity for the first time is expected by YE08.  
 Appealing valuation at FY08 PER of 11.3x: Based on an
averaged three-month historical PER of four comparable stocks of
11.25x, we have derived a YE08 target price of Bt4.28 for PM.    
Financial summary
FY Ended 31 Dec
2005
2006
2007E
2008E
2009E
Revenues (Btm)
   2,098
   2,436       2,618      2,823
   3,017
Net profit (Btm)
      153
       
148          296         247
      267
EPS (Bt)
     0.31
     0.30        
0.59        0.38
     0.41
BLS/Consensus (x)
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
EPS growth (%)
+730.9%
-3.1%
+99.8%
-35.8%
+7.8%
Core profit (Btm)
96
162
222
247
267
Core EPS (Bt)
0.19
0.32
0.44
0.38
0.41
Core EPS growth (%)
+463.0%
+68.8%
+37.2%
-14.4%
+7.8%
PER (x)
9.8
10.1
5.7
8.9
8.3
Core PER (x)
15.6
9.3
7.6
8.9
8.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
16.5
12.2
9.5
8.0
6.7
PBV (x)
n.m.
n.m.
58.6
2.7
2.0
Dividend (Bt)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Dividend yield (%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
ROE (%)
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
58.5
28.1
Net gearing (x)
n.m.
n.m.
29.5
0.2
(0.1)
Sources: Company, Bualuang estimates


janelovehoon
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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:15 am

โทษทีนะคะ
Financial Summary มันเป็นตารางอ่ะค่ะ
Paste แล้ว ก็เลยออกมาดังที่เห็น


janelovehoon
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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:15 am

IPO data  
 IPO shares: A total of 215m shares (at Bt1par) will be offered for this Initial Public
Offering (IPO), divided into: 1) 150m new shares and 2) 65m existing shares owned
by Premier Pet Products (PPP), a PM shareholder.  
 Paid-up capital: Post-IPO paid-up capital will be Bt650m (650m shares at Bt1 par
value), up from Bt500m in pre-IPO paid-up capital.    
 Financial advisor: Advisory Plus  
 Lead underwriter: Bualuang Securities  
 Purposes of IPO: To pay down existing long-term debt as the first priority and the
remainder as working capital.
 Subscription period: March 2008
 Post-IPO shareholders: Premier Fission Capital Co Ltd is the major shareholder
(65.4%), followed by Premier Pet Products Co Ltd (1.5%). Shareholders from the IPO
will hold 33.1%.


janelovehoon
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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:16 am

Investment highlights  
We summarized PMs key investment highlights below:  
 Brand value building: TARO is Thailands the most recognized fish snack brand. It
has an overwhelming 70% market share of the fish snack category and accounts for
7% of all the snacks sold in the country.  
 Strong distribution channels: PMs consumer product portfolio is strong. The firm
has good cost management and distributes through 30,000 outlets nationwide
covering both modern trade retailers and traditional channels.
 Consumer products to post 8-11% annual sales growth, FY07-08: Growth
will be driven by TARO, other snacks and food product items. TARO will post growth
of 10-11% annually, FY07-08.  
 Fish snack industry growth of 13% a year, FY07-08: Greater health-
consciousness and government curb on junk snacks are boosting industry growth.
 Tuna products to post 6% annual sales growth, FY07-08: Canned tuna
product sales volume growth is secured by Nichimo, which accounts for 50% of PCIs
sales. Nichimo has a long-term commitment to buying from PM.
 Canned tuna export growth of 5-6% a year, FY07-08.    
 Sustainable GM in FY08: The use of more varieties of fish for TARO will sustain
overall consumer products GM in FY08. In the canned tuna export business, Nichimo
is responsible for absorbing swings in the price of tuna.  
 Profit growth of 11% in FY08 and net profit CAGR of 5%, FY08-20.
 Strong financials: By YE08 PM will have lower gearing, positive shareholder equity
for the first time and sustained gross operating cash.
 Bt4.28 YE08 target price based on a PER of 11.25x.


janelovehoon
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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:16 am

Company profile  
Two major business lines: Premier Marketing Plc (PM) and its three subsidiariesPCI,
PFP and PMFare currently engaged in the following two business lines:  
 Consumer products: PM has traded consumer products for over 30 years. It
currently has five categories: snacks, foods & drinks, candies, drugs & nutrient foods,
personal care & household products.  
o  Snacks: 1) TARO fish snack manufactured by PM Food (PMF), a subsidiary, 2)
Calbee, SeaFish, Jacks and Bun-Bun (manufactured Calbee Thanawat, PMs
strategic partner, which is 19% owned by a subsidiary, PCI) and 3) Shin-Mai,
manufactured by Nam Chow (Thailand).
o  Foods & drinks: 1) Kings Kitchen tomato and chili sauces, manufactured by
Premier Canning Industry (PCI), a subsidiary, 2) pickled vegetables and fruits
such as pickled garlic, mangoes, cucumbers and canned fruits by Lampang
Foods and 3) fruit juice manufactured by Berri, an Australian fruit juice brand.
o  Candies: 1) Ole manufactured by Osotsapa and 2) Corifin-C, contract-packed by
Rubia Industry.
o  Lozenges & nutrient foods: Botun, Botun Mint Ball and Banner Protein,
manufactured by Osotsapa.
o  Personal care & household products: Soaps, powder, bathing gels, oil and
cream lotions and shampoos under the brands Cussons, Imperial Leather, Carex,
Pearl, Premier and Que.
PM has exclusive distribution rights in Thailand for the following products: TARO (under
PMF, a subsidiary), all products under Calbee Thanawat, prickled vegetables and fruits and
products under Lampang Foods and Ole product under Osotsapa. Meanwhile, for Shin-Mai,
Berri, some products under Osotsapa including One-One, Botun and all personal care
products under PZ Cussons, PM has only exclusive distribution rights for only traditional
trade.    
52% of consumer product sales through modern trade: In 9M07 more than half of
PMs consumer product sales were through modern trade channelssupermarkets,
hypermarkets and convenience stores. Another 48% of sales are by way of traditional
wholesalers and retailers nationwide.


janelovehoon
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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:17 am

Food products: These are operated via three subsidiariesPremier Canning Industry
(PCI), Premier Frozen Products (PFP) and PM Food (PMF). Food products can be
further broken down:  
o  Tuna products: 1) Tuna human consumption foods, both cans and pouches
and 2) tuna pet foods, both cans and pouches. The business unit is operated by
a wholly-owned subsidiary, PCI. Products are made according to agreed
specifications. All products are exported.  
o  Frozen food products: Value-added productstom yam seafood topping for
pizza, meat balls and frozen ready meal products. The unit is operated by a
wholly-owned subsidiary, PFP. Production is mostly sold domestically.
o  TARO fish snack: The unit is operated by PMF. TARO sales from PMF to PM are
eliminated via the inter-company transaction on the consolidated basis, leaving
only sales of PMF to other importers to appear on consolidated basis.


janelovehoon
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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:24 am

TAROthe biggest GM generator
Consumer productsthe biggest revenue generator: Consumer products trading
under Premier Marketing (PM) was the major revenue generator, representing 59% of
consolidated revenue in 9M07, followed by tuna products and sauces (39%). Of total sales
of consumer products, snack foods made up roughly 81%. In FY06, TARO branded fish
snacks represented 60% of total sales of consumer products. In other words, TARO alone
accounted for 35% of consolidated revenue, followed by Calbee (15%).

Tuna productssustainable GM
Secured tuna sales volume from Nichimo: In 9M07, 97% of PCIs consolidated
revenues are tuna products. It sells both tuna for humans and for pets in the ratio 54:46.
The other 3% of sales are tomato and chilli sauces. All tuna products are exported to
Japan accounting for 87% of sales and Europe the remainder. 90% of tuna for human
consumption was exported to Nichimo, a long-term Japanese client, which has also been
PMs business partner for more than 10 years. Nichimo distributes to large-scale clients in
Japan. Nichimo alone represented 48-52% of PCIs consolidated sales, FY06-9M07. As with
tuna products for humans and for pets, they are manufactured on a contract-packing
basis. With regard to those for pets, they are manufactured for client brands, such as
Nisshin, Inaba and DCM.
Nichimo is a close business partner: As a medium-sized manufacturer, PCI produces
canned tuna products under Nichimos brands and specifications. Nichimo has invested in
manufacturing know-how, machinery, packaging and, most significant of all, sourcing tuna
for PCI. The two firms have also engaged in the research and development of new
products together. We regard their business relationship as very close. The risk of PCI
losing Nichimo as a major customer is very low, given Nichimos investment in fixed assets
and its long-term business commitment to PM.
Minimal risk of raw material scarcity and price fluctuation to PCI: Tuna accounts
for 60% of PCIs total production costs. For 9M07, 62% of the tuna is imported from
nearby countries, such as Taiwan, Japan and India; the remainder from Thai vendors.
Under the contract, Nichimo bears the entire risk of sourcing tuna. However, PCI helps
Nichimo to locate domestic tuna supplies. Besides, Nichimo also bears the risk of imported
tuna price fluctuations for PCI. Hence, although tuna prices tend to be volatile, PCIs gross
margin is quite stable.


janelovehoon
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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:25 am

Some natural hedge of FX risk via P&L: PCIs tuna products are all exported, which
means that it has US dollar revenue exposure. During FY04-06, tuna products
represented 37%-39% of PMs consolidated revenueall denominated in US dollars.
However, FX risk is mitigated to some extent by natural hedging, as imported tuna
accounts for 62% of PCIs total production costs (or 20% of PMs consolidated cost of
sales). Hence, a 50% natural hedge structure between sales and costs (via consolidated
income statement) should help lessen the impact of a strengthening baht. Besides,
hedging instruments in the form of forward contracts for tuna help minimize FX risk in
baht terms.
Slightly improved PCI GM in 11M07: The price of skipjack tuna rocketed to
US$1,550/tonnne in August 2007 and in January was above US$2,000/tonne. The
dramatic price rise was mainly due to reduced catches in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Higher fuel costs were another factor. Despite the rally in tuna prices and a strengthening
baht in FY07, which meant that both the price of tuna and processing costs rose in dollar
terms, PCIs gross margin edged up to 7.1% in 11M07 for the following reasons:
Nichimo is responsible for higher tuna prices.
Sales prices of pet food to Japan rose. Pet food makes up 46% of PCIs consolidated
sales, 9M07.
New pet food products using varieties of meats and toppings were introduced.


janelovehoon
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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:28 am

Solid fish snack industry growth
10% yearly growth in snack market, FY07-08: The value of the snack market rose
by a 10.4% CAGR, FY01-06, from Bt8bn to Bt13bn. In FY06 extruded snacksor crispy
seasoned wheat such as Conne, Snack Jacks, Pote and Paprikaaccounted for the largest
portion (35%), followed by potato chips such as Lay, Testo and Prinkle (32%) and fish
snacks such as TARO, Fissho and Bento (9%). We expect 10-11% annual growth in FY07-
08, driven by fish snacks, potato chips and peanuts.

13% annual growth in fish snack market value, FY07-08: Among all snacks, fish
snacks posted the highest growth of 23% in FY06, due to an emerging trend of greater
consumer health consciousness, the banning of sales of junk snacks such as fried potato
chips at schools as well as an outrageous expansion of modern trade. We regard FY06
growth as extraordinary beyond normal. However, we still expect strong growth
momentum, returning to normal level, for fish snacks of 13-14% annually, FY07-08, due
in part to Food & Drug Administration bans on free gifts in snack packaging, limitations
on broadcast advertising for junk snacks during childrens programming hours and
requirements for special labeling of junk content. Such trends favor TAROits key selling
points are its low fat content and high protein content. TAROs market share of the fish
snack category has remained steady at about 70%, FY04-08, which currently represents
a 7% share of the total snack market.


janelovehoon
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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:28 am

Sustainable export growth to Japan
5-6% canned tuna export value growth to Japan, FY07-08: The total export value
of canned tuna in FY06 and 9M07 rose by 11.4% YoY (to Bt40bn in FY06) and 1.9% YoY,
respectively. Canned tuna export volume in FY06 and 9M07 increased by 12.9% YoY and
2.2% YoY, respectively. Thailands biggest canned tuna market is the US (20% exports
by value), followed by Australia (9%), Canada (7%) and Japan (7%). Average export
growth to Japan rose by an average of 8% annually in terms of volume and 11% in
value, FY99-06. We estimate a sustainable 5-6% average growth rate for canned tuna
export volume and value (in baht terms) to Japan, FY07-08. The softening growth in baht
terms is largely due to reduced tuna supply and baht appreciation in FY07.
PCI to focus on made-to-order tuna products for a niche market: PCIs made-toorder
tuna exports are geared towards a niche market, of which roughly 50% of total
sales orders go to Nichimo, rather than competing head-on with tuna commodity
markets.


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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:29 am

JTEPA to augment export volume growth: The Japan-Thailand Economic Partnership
Agreement (JTEPA), which became effective in November 2007, will ease Thai tuna
export access to the Japanese market. Under the agreement, over the next five years
Japan will gradually cut its import tariff on tuna product exports from Thailand from the
current 9.6% to 0%, or a 1.6% reduction per annum. In recent years, various tuna
product manufacturers in Japan have halted production due to higher labor costs and
relocated production bases to Thailand or engaged OEM firms. Statistics indicate that
Japanese people consume 576m cans of tuna annually, 30% of which is imported from
Thailand. We estimate that JTEPA will boost Thai Tuna export volume by another 2-3% in
FY08 on top of the 3% volume growth that would have been expected without the
agreement.


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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:30 am

FY07 core profit growth of 37% YoY
Robust core net profit growth for FY07: We estimate a Bt222m core net profit for
FY07 (stripping out a Bt74m gain from the sale of an investment in FY07 and Bt14m asset
revaluation gain reversal in FY06), up by 37% YoY. We expect PM to post 7% YoY sales
growth for the year. The robust FY07 core profit growth is attributable to the following
factors:
Sustainable consumer product sales growth of 8% YoY: We expect TARO
sales to deliver 10% YoY growth by value and 11% by volume for FY07. Penetration
into modern trade continued into FY07, despite not being as aggressive as FY06.
More aggressive marketing and promotional activities, an emerging trend toward
more health-conscious lifestyles and higher sales of big-sized TARO packs
underpinned volume growth. For other trading productssnacks, candies, lozenges
and nutrient foods as well as personal care and household products5% average
sales growth is expected to be posted.


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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:34 am

Solid 6% YoY tuna product sales growth: We expect 7% YoY sales volume
growth for tuna products in FY07, roughly in line with the 5% industry volume
growth of canned tuna exports to Japan. Volume growth is partly boosted by the
two-month impact of JTEPANovember-December 2007. This is despite industrys
lower tuna supply in FY07 as Nichimo is keener than before in locating tuna supply
sources. We expect US$ average sales prices to rise by 4% YoY due to the impact of
higher tuna prices. However, in baht terms, we expect average sales prices to be
stable.
Improving GM in FY07: We expect gross margin to rise from 24.6% in FY06 to
25.0% in FY07 for the following reasons:
GM for TARO trading sales should rise from 35.1% in FY06 to 38% in FY07,
boosted by OPEX-saving measures, including: 1) locating more sources of fish, 2)
switching to other alternative types of energy and 3) higher sales of big-sized
TARO packs, which yield a higher GM than small packs, due to lower packaging
costs.
GM for tuna product sales should sustain at 7% in FY07, due to the
responsibilities of Nichimo for higher tuna prices. Meanwhile, both mechanisms
50% natural hedging via the consolidated income statement and the use of
hedging instrumentsguard against baht appreciation in FY07.


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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:35 am

To start paying tax in 2Q07: PCI and its parent company, PM, will start paying tax in
2Q07, as losses carried forward are almost burned off at both companies. We expect a
Bt910m loss to be used as a tax shield in FY07. Of that amount, Bt869m belongs to
another subsidiary, PMF. As such, we estimate a Bt20m consolidated tax expense for FY07.


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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:36 am

FY08 core profit growth of 11% YoY
Solid core net profit growth for FY08: We forecast a Bt247m core net profit for FY08,
up by 11% YoY. We expect 8% YoY consolidated sales growth for the year. Core profit
growth in FY08 will be driven by:
Continuing consumer product sales growth of 11% YoY: For TARO, we expect
12% volume sales growth in FY08.
o TARO will launch two new flavors in 1Q08 and 3Q08. This should add another 3-
5% volume growth on top of 5% organic growth of its current flavors.
o Continuing branch expansion of modern trade retailers will be another key driver
of volume growth in FY08.
Overall, we expect 11% TARO trading sales growth in FY08. With regard to other
consumer products, negotiations with 2-3 new accounts of trading firms are currently
underway and PM expects to add one new account in FY08. We have not yet factored
this possible new account into our sales projection. We regard this as a potential
upside. Overall, sales of consumer products should grow by 9% in FY08.


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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:39 am

Continuing tuna product sales growth of 6% YoY: Although the tuna supply
shortage is likely to mean that tuna prices remain high into 2008, we are confident
that PCI will see 6% YoY sales volume growth for the following reasons:
o Nichimo is sourcing tuna further ahead this year. Currently, PCI has 3-4 months
of tuna inventory on-hand.
o The JTEPA will augment volume growth by at least 3% this year.
GM to hold up well in FY08: We expect gross margin to slip only a little from
25.0% to 24.8% in FY08.
o TAROs GM should remain firm despite higher fish (surimi) prices, pushed up by
fuel oil prices. PMF will try other varieties of fish as raw materials. Hence, we
expect TAROs trading sales GM to slip only marginally from 38% in FY07 to
37.5% in FY08. Another sales strategy under consideration is to focus on bigger
sized packs.
o Nichimo will absorb much of the rising cost of tuna at PCIs tuna canning
business. This year, tuna-based pet food will represent 46% of PCIs sales. It
had successfully negotiated the price increases with some Japanese clients.
Meanwhile, the use of meat assortments and topping varieties as well as the
launches of new value-added pet foods should result in a sustained GM in FY08.
Interest expense saving to be offset by higher tax expense: We estimate
Bt17m in interest expense for FY08, or a 44% YoY decline, due to the use of Bt500m
in proceeds from the IPO and internal cash to repay Bt890m in debt. However, a
decline in interest expense is offset by higher tax expense. We estimate a Bt40m tax
expense, or a 102% YoY rise, as PMF, a subsidiary, will start to pay a 15% BOIprivilege
tax rate in FY08 as an Bt869m loss carried forwards was used up in FY07.
This is in addition to higher tax expense for PM and PCI.
Upside in FY08a new client for PCI: PCI is negotiating with a new major customer,
expected to be known by 1H08. Other new products using tuna and salmon raw materials
are planned, tentatively scheduled for production in 2H08. This new project offers
potential upside for PCI. The additional contribution to sales is estimated at 4-5%.


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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:40 am

Financial position
Positive shareholder equity with low gearing at YE08: Proceeds from the IPO and
solid earnings, FY07-08, will turn YE08 shareholder equity strongly black, from mildly red
at YE07. Furthermore, the repayment of debt with IPO proceeds and operating cash flow
should strengthen its gearing ratio, as evidenced by a 0.32x of YE08 debt-to-equity ratio.
We assume consolidated interest-bearing debt will plunge from Bt893m at YE07 to
Bt259m at YE08. The majority of the debt reduction will come from PMF, whose
outstanding debt is currently roughly Bt800m.
Solid gross operating cash of 9% in FY08: This is due to 11% YoY growth in
consumer product sales, 6% YoY growth in tuna product sales and a sustained GM in FY08.


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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:41 am

Valuation and recommendation
YE08 target price of Bt4.28 based on 11.25x PER: We have selected a PER as one
of the two approaches to arrive at the PMs fair price. The implied current PER is derived
at 11.25x by using the following assumptions:
We selected a basket of four stocks in the Foods & Drinks sector with similar
business characteristics to PM. Our comparison stocks are TUF, TF, SAUCE and PB.
(Note that ABICOs, LSTs, KSLs and TVOs business models are not similar enough
to PMs to be relevant, while MINTs unusually high PER is because of its hotel
business. OISHI and S&P food restaurants are also incomparable with PMs current
businesses, as is TIPCOs fruit juice packaging operation).
We used three-month historical PER data, October-December 2007, from the four
comparison stocks, which we averaged to a PER of 11.25x. We got the same result
using six-month data. By using the average of the most current PER of the four
proxies, 1-31 January 2008, we derived an implied PER of 10.57x.
By applying the 11.25x PER to FY08 EPS of Bt0.38, we arrived at a YE08 target price
of Bt4.28.


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Posts by โอ@ » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:42 am

ปลาทาโร่  :lol:

_________

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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:44 am

YE08 target price of Bt4.37 based on DCF: We cross-checked our comparative PER
valuation by using discounted cash flow (DCF) methodologyunderpinned by its
consolidated earnings and cash flow sustainability via a long-term free cash flow CAGR of
4.1%, FY08-20. Regardless of economic or political conditions, we believe a 4.1%
average long-term annual growth rate is viable. The consumer product trading business is
secured by 5-10% yearly growth momentum while the OEM tuna business is largely
protected from the vagaries of tuna prices, due to the fact that Nichimo makes up
roughly 50% of total PCIs sales and absorbs the risks associated with tuna sourcing and
price volatility. We made the following assumptions in our DCF method:
WACC of 12.5%, using Rf = 5.5%, Rm = 20%, after-tax cost of debt = 5.7%, beta
= 0.48 (using the average of four comparison stocks) and debt/capital ratio = 0.01x.
The perpetual terminal growth of 4.1% beyond 2020, calculated from average free
cash flow growth, FY08-20.


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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:46 am

Risk factors
FX risk: PM has a 50% natural foreign exchange hedge between sales and cost
structure via its consolidated income statement (40% of consolidated sales is
denominated in US dollars as is 20% of consolidated cost of sales). Thus, a modestly
stronger baht in FY08 would have only an insignificant impact on gross margin. Our
sensitivity analysis indicates that if the Thai currency strengthens by Bt1/US$, the
impact on consolidated sales and net profit would be only 2%-3%.
Tuna shortage in FY08: Nichimo is entirely responsible for locating sources of
tuna, according to its contract with PM. However, the tuna shortage may persist into
FY08. Under the worst-case scenario, there might be a supply crunch in 2H08 (PM
has a 3- to 4-month inventory on-hand). Nichimo is in the process of building up the
tuna inventory in 1H08.
Losing Nichimo as a customer in the longer-term: We believe that this is an
unlikely scenario. Nichimo made a strong business commitment through its
technology investment in PMs subsidiary, PCI. However, if such a scenario were to
play out, we believe PM could acquire new trading partners. The firm is currently
negotiating with a new major client that may start production in 2H08.
Higher fuel oil and tuna prices in FY08: Fuel oil prices will impact PM in terms of
higher prices for surimi and higher transport and energy costs. However, it has put
several cost-saving measures in place, including using more varieties of fish and
switching to new energy sources. We believe that this effort to economize should
help sustain margin in FY08. For PCI business, tuna prices should not have any effect
on the bottom-line, as Nichimo will have to absorb higher prices of tuna.
Risk of losing key trading accounts of consumer products: The contracts for
trading accounts are normally renewed every 2-3 years. The contracts with Calbee
and Cussons were recently extended for another 2-3 years each. However, there is a
long-term risk of losing key accounts if brand owners decide to operate marketing
and distribution themselves or move their accounts to other operators. Currently, PM
is negotiating to add two or three new consumer product accounts to its portfolio. If
deals are agreed, the new accounts will be added to its portfolio in 2H08.


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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:47 am

จบแล้วค่ะ
:wink:


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Posts by janelovehoon » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:59 am

แถมอีกนิด จาก efinancethai
-----------------------------------------------
อันดับ 2 ได้แก่ บริษัท พรีเมียร์ มาร์เก็ตติ้ง จำกัด(มหาชน) จะเสนอขายไอพีโอ 215 ล้านหุ้น พาร์หุ้นละ 1 บาท ช่วงราคาเสนอขาย 3.00-3.50 บาท จะสรุปราคาเสนอขายได้ในช่วงต้นเดือน พ.ค. เปิดจองซื้อได้ในวันที่ 14-16 พ.ค. และคาดว่าหุ้นบริษัทจะเข้าซื้อขายในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทย วันที่ 27 พ.ค. 2551 โดยมีบล.บัวหลวงเป็นผู้จัดจำหน่ายและรับประกันการจำหน่าย
        สำหรับวัตถุประสงค์ในการใช้เงินจากการเสนอขายหุ้นในครั้งนี้บริษัทจะนำเงินไปปรับโครงสร้างเงินทุนของบริษัท โดยบริษัทจะนำส่วนเกินมูลค่าหุ้นที่จะเกิดขึ้นจากการเสนอขายไอพีโอมาใช้ลดขาดทุนสะสม ณ สิ้น 31 ธ.ค.51 บริษัทมีขาดทุนสะสม 501 ล้านบาท และใช้เป็นเงินทุนหมุนเวียน
บริษัทมีทุนจดทะเบียน 650 ล้านบาท เรียกชำระแล้ว 500 ล้านบาท หลังเสนอขายหุ้น จะส่งผลให้มีทุนชำระแล้วเป็น 650 ล้านบาท โดยหุ้นที่ออกใหม่ คิดเป็น 33.08% ของจำนวนหุ้นที่ออกและชำระแล้ว และบริษัทมีนโยบายจ่ายเงินปันผลไม่ต่ำกว่า 50% ของกำไรสุทธิ
        ผลการดำเนินงานปี 2550 มีกำไรสุทธิ 293 ล้านบาท เพิ่มขึ้นจากปี 2549 ซึ่งมีกำไรสุทธิ 148 ล้านบาท สาเหตุหลักจากการที่บริษัทมีกำไรจากการจำหน่ายเงินลงทุนในบริษัทย่อย แต่หากไม่รวมการการดังกล่าวบริษัทจะมีกำไรสุทธิ 207 ล้านบาท สิ้นปี 2550 บริษัทมีสินทรัพย์รวม 1,244 ล้านบาท หนี้สินรวม 1,314 ล้านบาท แม้ฐานะการเงินจะไม่น่าเร้าใจ แต่ประเด็นที่น่าสนใจคือ เงินที่ได้จากการขายไอพีโอ บริษัทจะนำไปชำระคืนเงินกู้ระยะยาว ซึ่งจะทำให้ดอกเบี้ยจ่ายลดลง และในปี 2551-2554 บริษัทย่อยจะได้รับการลดหย่อนภาษีเงินได้เนื่องจากมีผลขาดทุนสะสม
       และสิ่งที่น่าจะจุดพลุผลการดำเนินงานของ พรีเมียร์ มาร์เก็ตติ้ง คือ บริษัทมีแผนจะขายเงินลงทุนใน บมจ.พรีเมียร์ เอ็นเตอร์ไรซ์ (PE) ซึ่ง ณ สิ้นปี 2550 บริษัทมีเงินลงทุนใน PE จำนวน 146 ล้านหุ้น โดยต้นทุนหุ้น PE อยู่ที่ 0.25 บาท ยิ่งกว่านั้นการอยู่ร่วมชายคากับครอบครัวพงศธร น่าจะช่วยให้ใจชื่นในวันแรกที่เข้าเทรด
-----------------------------------------------
Bye ค่ะ
:wink:


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Posts by Belffet » Wed Apr 30, 2008 8:24 am

น่าสนใจจริงๆ


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sorawut
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Posts by sorawut » Wed Apr 30, 2008 10:18 am

น่าสงสัยว่าสินค้าก็เป็นที่รู้จัก
Technology การผลิตก็ไม่น่าจะมีต้นทุนสูงมาก (คิดว่านะ)
แต่ทำไมหนี้ถึงเยอะจัง แถมยังขาดทุนสะสมอีก

น่าสงสัยจัง  :?


Belffet
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Posts by Belffet » Wed Apr 30, 2008 10:42 am

ผมว่าเป็นเรื่องผลประโยชน์ภาษีครับ


sattaya
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Posts by sattaya » Wed Apr 30, 2008 3:06 pm

อยากทราบว่าขาดทุนสะสมมีสาเหตุจากอะไรและเกิดขึ้นในปีใหนหรือครับ


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krisy
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Posts by krisy » Wed Apr 30, 2008 3:13 pm

sattaya wrote:อยากทราบว่าขาดทุนสะสมมีสาเหตุจากอะไรและเกิดขึ้นในปีใหนหรือครับ
เท่าที่อ่านใน filing มาตั้งแต่ปี 40 เค้าบอกว่าเจอพิษเศรษฐกิจ ไม่รู้จะไปหาอ่านข้อมูลเพิ่มที่ไหนเหมือนกันค่ะ เพราะหนี้สินมหาศาล คาดว่ามาจากช่วงนั้นด้วย

.....Give Everything but not Give Up.....

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