... Alexis tsipras - anti-bailout มา win ใน poll !??

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สรุปทั้ง 3 พรรคเจ๊ง ไม่สามารถ form coalition gov't ได้

แต่สำหรับ reelection รอบนี้ ข่าวบอกว่า poll ชี้ syrizas (anti bailout party) มาวิน แล้วถ้าได้เสียงส่วนมากจริงจะได้ที่นั่งเพิ่มอีก 50 ที่อัตโนมัติ ซึ่งนั้นหมายความว่า greece คงจะโดนเตะออกจาก euro

สรุปมันมีการเลือกตั้งครั้งนี้เพื่ออะไรนะครับ?

ทำไมถึงไม่ make deal ผูกมัดตลอดรอดฝั่งตั้งแต่ตอนเริ่มให้เงิน bailout

ทำไมเปลี่ยนกลางอากาศแบบนี้ได้

ทำไมเป็นแบบนี้ งง ................................. การเมือง อะไรก้เกิดขึ้นได้!

Greece hurtles towards new election; hard left leads

By George Georgiopoulos and Renee Maltezou

ATHENS | Fri May 11, 2012 3:23pm EDT

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece's politicians failed on Friday to agree a new government, sending the country hurtling towards a new vote, with radical leftists leading in the polls and poised to scrap the 130 billion euro bailout that staved off bankruptcy.

The prospect of a new election just weeks after an inconclusive vote that paralyzed the most troubled country in the euro zone caused havoc in financial markets.

The European single currency hit its lowest point since January near $1.29, while the Athens stock exchange fell more than 4 percent to its lowest level since 1992.

Outgoing finance minister Evangelos Venizelos, leader of the Socialist PASOK party, acknowledged his failure to form a government after he was spurned by radical leftist Alexis Tsipras, who has sworn to tear up the bailout.

"The moment of truth is here. I will inform the president tomorrow afternoon. I hope everybody shows maturity and responsibility in consultations with the president," he said.

President Karolos Papoulias will now have a last chance to meet with all political leaders to convince them to agree a cabinet, although the odds of success are seen as scant. If he fails as expected, he must call a new election for mid-June.

Venizelos had tried to form a unity coalition government, but the offer was brushed aside by Tsipras, who saw it as a scheme to salvage the bailout that most voters rejected.

"It is not the Left Coalition that has refused this proposal, but the Greek people, who did so with their vote on Sunday," Tsipras said.

Venizelos's PASOK party and its conservative New Democracy partners dominated the country for generations but were punished by voters for jointly agreeing the bailout. Sunday's vote saw their combined share fall to 32 percent from 77 percent.

Still, they had come close to forming a government because of a rule that gives the single largest party - New Democracy - an extra 50 seats in the 300-seat house, an advantage they are now poised to lose.

A new poll showed Tsipras's SYRIZA headed for first place after consolidating the anti-bailout vote, which means he would take the 50 bonus seats and reduce the pro-bailout contingent to only about a third of parliament.

Greek politics would be radically transformed and a thunderbolt felt across Europe, where voters are turning against German-backed austerity, and where the once iron-fast principle that no country could leave the euro currency is now in doubt.

"I appeal to the sense of national responsibility of all (Greek) political leaders to reach an agreement respecting the country's engagement and ensuring its European future," European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said.

The overwhelming majority of Greeks still want to stay in the euro. Tsipras's party says that can be achieved without accepting the terms of the bailout, which was hammered out earlier this year when Greece was weeks away from running out of funds.

"They will be begging us to take the money," SYRIZA deputy Dimitris Stratoulis said of the bailout, arguing that European leaders would not dare risk a Greek exit from the euro that would wreck the single currency project.

But European leaders say they are determined to halt Greek funding if Athens rejects the bailout terms, even if that means pushing it into bankruptcy and a costly exit from the currency.

"We will only give it if Greece meets all agreements. Otherwise they won't get the money," Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said.

TSIPRAS TAPS VOTER FURY

Backers of the bailout say the wage cuts, tax hikes and economic reforms demanded by Brussels are the only way Greece can hope to become solvent. Opponents say it is self-defeating - making Greece's debt problem worse by destroying its chances of economic growth and imposing extreme hardship on a population already enduring five years of recession.

The younger generation has been hit particularly hard - more than half of Greek youth are unemployed. They appear to have found a hero in Tsipras, a boyish 37-year-old civil engineer, ex-Communist and former student leader.

In a country fed up with middle-aged party dynasts widely seen as corrupt, he has become a star - aided by a self-confident manner and good looks.

Samaras and Venizelos may be hoping Greeks - frightened by the prospect of a hasty exit from the euro - will return to their traditional parties in a vote re-run.

But the first opinion poll since the election showed the main beneficiary of a new vote would be Tsipras. It gave SYRIZA 27.7 percent of the vote, almost 11 points up on its Sunday result, and well ahead of New Democracy on about 20 percent.

Ratings agency Fitch said the emergence of a government that disavowed the bailout terms would increase the chance of Greece leaving the euro zone, an event it said would put the credit ratings of all euro countries at risk.

Greece could run out of money as soon as the end of June. The prospect that Greece might declare bankruptcy and leave the euro caused panic across the euro zone last year. Since then, European banks have written off the value of most of their Greek debt, making them less prone to shock if Greece defaults.

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เอเอฟพี - นายอีวานเจลอส เวนิเซลอส หัวหน้าพรรคปาซ็อก พรรคสังคมนิยมของกรีซ ยอมรับเมื่อวันศุกร์(11) ว่าเขาล้มเหลวในความพยายามครั้งสุดท้ายในการจัดตั้งรัฐบาล ส่งผลให้ประเทศแห่งนี้ขยับเข้าใกล้ที่จะต้องจัดเลือกตั้งใหม่

"ผมจะเดินทางไปแจ้งข่าวกับท่านประธานาธิบดีในวันพรุ่งนี้(วันเสาร์) และผมหวังว่าระหว่างการหารือกับคาโรลอส ปาปูลิอาส แต่ละพรรคแสดงความรับผิดชอบ" นายเวนิซิลอส อ้างถึงการเจรจาที่มีเป้าหมายพยายามจัดตั้งรัฐบาลสามัคคีแห่งชาติ

ถ้อยแถลงของเวนิเซลอส มีออกมาหลังจากพรรคซ้ายจัด ไซริซา ปฏิเสธเข้าร่วมรัฐบาลผสมที่สนับสนุนมาตรการรัดเข็มขัดร่วมกับพรรรคสังคมนิยมและอนุรักษ์นิยมทั้งหลาย ทำให้ในช่วงสุดสัปดาห์นี้ ประธานาธิบดีปาปูลิอาส จะเป็นเจ้าภาพประชุมหารือในความพยายามหลอมรวมทุกฝ่ายเป็นอันหนึ่งอันเดียวกันเพื่อจัดตั้งรัฐบาลสามัคคีแห่งชาติ อย่างไรก็ตามหากแต่ละพรรคล้มเหลวในการเจรจาประนีประนอมจนถึงวันพฤหัสบดีหน้า(17) ก็จำเป็นต้องจัดเลือกตั้งใหม่

นายเวนิเซลอส นับเป็นหัวหน้าพรรคการเมืองใหญ่รายที่ 3 ที่ได้พยายามและล้มเหลวไปแล้วในการจัดตั้งรัฐบาล หลังศึกเลือกตั้งที่ไม่ได้บทสรุปเมื่อวันอาทิตย์(6) เป็นเสียงสะท้อนของประชาชนที่แสดงพลังต่อต้านมาตรการรัดเข็มขัดอันเจ็บปวดและบางครั้งก็จุดชนวนเหตุประท้วงรุนแรง

ในความพยายามเจรจาจัดตั้งรัฐบาลของพรรคที่ได้รับคะแนนเสียงเป็นอันดับ 3 นายเวนิเซลอส หวังได้รับการสนับสนุนจากพรรคไซริซา พรรคที่ต่อต้านเงื่อนไขเงินกู้ยืม 240,000 ล้านยูโรของอียูและไอเอ็มเอฟอย่างหนักแน่น นำมาซึ่งคะแนนนิยมที่ล้นหลาม จนคว้าเก้าอี้ในรัฐสภาได้มากที่สุดเป็นอันดับ2 อย่างไรก็ตามสุดท้ายก็ถูกปฏิเสธ

"พรรคไซรีซาไม่ได้เป็นผู้ปฏิเสธ(เข้าร่วมรัฐบาล) แต่มันเป็นการตัดสินใจของประชาชนชาวกรีซ" อเล็กซิส ซิปราส หัวหน้าพรรคกล่าว

ก่อนหน้านี้ทั้ง ซิปราส และอันโตนิส ซามาราส หัวหน้าพรรคนิว เดโมแครต ได้พยายามรวบรวมคะแนนเสียงเพื่อจัดตั้งรัฐบาล แต่ก็ไม่ประสบความสำเร็จ

เหตุยุ่งเหยิงทางการเมืองระลอกล่าสุดมีขึ้นขณะที่ เยอรมนี ผู้ออกทุนรายใหญ่ของอียู ขู่ตัดความช่วยเหลือทางการเงินแก่กรีซและแย้มว่าเอเธนส์อาจถูกขับออกจากยูโรโซน

กุยโด เวสเตอร์เวล์ล รัฐมนตรีต่างประเทศเยอรมนีกล่าวว่า "เราต้องการช่วยเหลือกรีซและเราจะช่วยเหลือพวกเขา แต่กรีซต้องทำตัวให้เหมือนคนที่ต้องการความช่วยเหลือด้วย หากพวกเขาออกนอกลู่นอกทางจากข้อตกลงปฏิรูป เมื่อนั้นก็เป็นไปไม่ได้ที่พวกเขาจะได้รับความช่วยเหลือเพิ่มเติม"

ด้านบริษัทจัดอันดับความน่าเชื่อถือ ฟิตช์ เครดิต เรตติ้ง เตือนว่าหากรัฐบาลใหม่กรีซไม่มีความตั้งใจหรือไม่ยอมยึดถือเงื่อนใขในโปรแกรมช่วยเหลือของอียูและไอเอ็มเอฟ ก็จะเพิ่มความเสี่ยงให้เอเธนส์ต้องถูกขับออกจากยูโรโซน

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แนวโน้มไม่ดี คลุมเคลือมาก

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-1 ... nment.html

Syriza Says It Won’t Join Greek National Unity Government (Update 1)

By Maria Petrakis, Natalie Weeks and Marcus Bensasson - May 13, 2012 9:37 PM GMT+0700

Greece’s biggest anti-bailout party, Syriza, said for the second time in as many days that it won’t join a unity government, pushing the country closer to new elections that have sparked concerns about a euro-area exit.

“Syriza won’t betray the Greek people,” leader Alexis Tsipras said in statements televised on state-run NET TV after a meeting brokered by President Karolos Papoulias between the party and the leaders of the New Democracy and Pasok parties. “We are being asked to agree to the destruction of Greek society.”


Papoulias began a final bid to coax the three biggest parties into a coalition today after a week of talks which failed to deliver on mandates to form governments. He will meet later today the leaders of the four other parties to probe the likelihood of forming a national-unity government. If Papoulias’s efforts fail, new elections will need to be called.

Greece’s political impasse since inconclusive general elections May 6 has raised the possibility another vote will have to be held as early as next month, with polls showing that could boost anti-bailout Syriza to the top spot. The standoff has reignited concern the country will renege on pledges to cut spending as required by the terms of its two bailouts negotiated since May 2010, and, ultimately, leave the euro area.

Mandates Returned

Evangelos Venizelos, the socialist Pasok leader, returned the third, and final, mandate to Papoulias yesterday after Tsipras turned down an appeal by the smaller Democratic Left party to join a coalition.

Papoulias’s efforts will now focus on Democratic Left, to see if he can persuade them to join a government. Democratic Left has said that Syriza, the second-biggest party, must be part of its proposed unity government.

Tsipras said the three pro-bailout parties may proceed, a departure from his statements on May 11 when he said he hoped that Democratic Left would stick to pledges to not join such a government without Syriza.

“The three parties that have agreed on the policy framework for a two-year government to implement the memorandum have 168 lawmakers in the new parliament,” which has 300 deputies, he said. “They have the majority so let them proceed. Their demand for Syriza to join their planned agreement is illogical.”

‘Shameful’ Statements

Democratic Left party said Tsipras’s statements today were unjustified.

“Yesterday he called on us to stand fast to our positions that we not participate in a government without Syriza,” the Athens-based party said in an e-mailed statement. “Today he declares that we have agreed with Pasok and New Democracy on a government to support the bailout. It is shameful.”

Pasok, New Democracy and Democratic Left agreed last week on the broad outline of a government that would last until 2014 and be committed to keeping the country in the euro region and renegotiating bailout conditions from the International Monetary Fund and European Union to boost growth. Tsipras turned down the approach on May 11 as the first opinion polls since the elections showed he was gaining in support.

Syriza would come in first, though short of an outright majority, with 20.5 percent of the vote, if elections were held again, according to a Kapa Research poll for the newspaper To Vima, released yesterday. It got 16.8 percent in the May 6 election. Support for New Democracy would fall to 18.1 percent from 18.9 percent and Pasok would drop to 12.2 percent from 13.2 percent, according to the survey.

Concessions Wanted

The poll showed 78 percent of Greeks want the government to do whatever possible to keep Greece in the euro area and that 72 percent want political parties to make concessions to form a coalition, compared with 22.9 percent who want new elections. Kapa surveyed 1,007 Greeks May 9 and 10. The poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

New Democracy and Pasok, the two parties that supported the international rescue in an interim government earlier this year, are two deputies short of the 151 seats needed for a majority in the 300-seat chamber. Five parties opposed to the bailout conditions are now in parliament.

Tsipras failed to reach an accord with other leaders after giving them an ultimatum to renounce support for the EU-led rescue in order to enter the government. Both Antonis Samaras, the leader of New Democracy, and Venizelos rejected the request.

Samaras, whose party finished first, gave up trying to forge a coalition after six hours of talks on May 7.

Euro Exit Risk

More than half of investors predict one of the nations in the euro area will exit the currency bloc this year as Greece’s election impasse threatens to push the European debt crisis to new depths, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll on May 10.

A Greek departure from the euro could be “technically” managed yet would damage confidence in the monetary union, European Central Bank Governing Council member Patrick Honohan said yesterday.

“It is not necessarily fatal, but it is not attractive,” Honohan told a conference in the Estonian capital, Tallinn.

Greece will run out of cash by early July if partners decided to withhold their next aid payment. The European Financial Stability Facility on May 9 confirmed that a 5.2 billion-euro ($6.7 billion) tranche will be released by the end of June, with 4.2 billion euros disbursed May 10. The remaining 1 billion euros will be released depending on Greece’s financing needs.

Bailout Terms

Under the terms of the bailout, a new government will need to spell out how it will save 11 billion euros next month.

Fitch Ratings said in a report on May 11 that the outcome of another election would be “unpredictable” and “make it doubtful that Greece could comply with the EU-IMF’s end-June deadline to propose further medium-term austerity measures.”

While Greece would probably be granted an extension to that deadline, any attempt to significantly renegotiate its program would be unacceptable to the so-called troika of the European Commission, IMF and European Central Bank, Fitch said.

“The impression from this week’s unfruitful negotiations on the formation of a new government is that Greek political parties have taken the view that new elections in June are the only way out,” Riccardo Barbieri, chief European economist at Mizuho International Plc said in a note to investors on May 11. “If new elections are called, they will indeed amount to a referendum on staying in the euro.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Maria Petrakis in Athens at [email protected]; [email protected]; Natalie Weeks in Athens at [email protected]; Marcus Bensasson in Athens at [email protected];