มุมมองต่อประเทศไทยวันนี้ ของ Mark Mobius

[Rocker]

Update on Thailand
April 16, 2010

I have received numerous queries on the current situation in Thailand since
the violence on Saturday, April 12, where 21 people were killed and over
800 injured.  We believe that this clash, the worst in 2 decades, will
definitely result in political changes for the country with more political
participation of the red shirts, who form the core of the protest
movements that are considered anti-government. We are more bullish on the
long-term opportunities for the Thai economy and market.

We believe the declaration of emergency rule in Bangkok, the Thai capital,
will not change the situation and may even result in greater resistance. We
understand that there is growing sympathy among the rank-and-file military
for the red shirts, based on various reports.  The authority of Prime
Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has also certainly been harmed by the violence.
The army chief General Anupong Paochinda has said that a house dissolution
should be the answer, and Abhisit had said that he would be willing to
dissolve parliament by the end of the year.  However, that will not be
acceptable to the opposition, especially since they feel he is stalling for
time so that he can push more money into the rural areas and gain more
support.  Indeed, there are now signs that various forces are finding
opportunities for the ruling parties to bow out gracefully.   There is also
news that Thailands Election Commission just recommended that Abhisits
ruling Democratic Party be prosecuted for allegedly accepting illegal
campaign donations.  That would go to the courts and if the verdict is
guilty, it would lead to the party being dissolved and forced from office.
Such a development would lead to new elections.

Calling elections, however, will not resolve the longer-term issue, which
is a societal divide between the ruling urban elite and the rural masses.
This needs to be addressed.  Otherwise, a win by parties aligned to the
red shirts will likely lead to the yellow shirts, who are considered
pro-government and royalist supporters, taking to the streets and vice
versa.  We expect further unrest.

Tourism accounts for about 6 to 7% of Thailands GDP, and the country is
likely to fall short of its 2010 target of attracting 15.5 million
visitors.[1]  While tourisms direct impact on GDP is not significant, the
indirect implications are higher as an estimated 20% of employment in
Thailand is directly or indirectly linked to tourism.[2]  At this time,
employment remains tight in Thailand.

Continued demonstrations and political uncertainty will lead to delays in
stimulus projects, affecting rural income and consumer confidence.  We
believe that this could potentially reduce the countrys GDP growth rate to
a range of 2 to 3%.  Thailands Fiscal Policy Office estimated that last
weekends deadly clashes could cost the Thai economy $1.58 billion in lost
revenue this year.  However, exports are expected to remain strong as long
as the global economic recovery continues.

The importance of the King and his office cannot be underestimated since
he has been the highest moral authority in the country. His status and
image have been used from time to time to discourage dissent.  But recently
the Thai foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, indicated that the current
upheaval is part of the process of becoming a more open and democratic
society and that society should be open to discussing the role of the
monarchy.

While the current political crisis in Thailand poses big headline risks to
stocks over the short term, it is not new or unexpected for the country.
Since absolute monarchy was abolished in Thailand in 1932, there have been
about 20 successful and failed coups, numerous unrests, and several changes
in the constitution.  We have been investing in Thailand for almost 15
years, and Thailand has been subjected to continuous macro and political
turmoil over this period.  The series of political issues from the Asian
crisis in 1997 to recent fears of the Thai Kings waning health late last
year, have not impacted the long-term growth outlook for Thailand.  Our
investment philosophy and process stresses the importance of having a
long-term investment perspective, and companies are typically assessed
based on a 5-year investment horizon.

Notably, investments in the financial services sector, such as banks, which
focus more on the domestic market, and energy sectors are areas that we
expect will thrive over the long run when the economy recovers.  Until last
week, Thailand was one of the three best performing stock markets in Asia
ex Japan since the start of 2010.[3]  The Thai Baht and Thai credit were
also doing well.  Despite numerous political uncertainties in the past,
several of Thailands blue-chip corporations have outperformed their peers
in more stable countries in the region.  Valuations of the stock market
remain attractive with estimated P/E of 11.6x, P/B of 2.1x, and yield of
about 3%.[4]  The Thailand Stock Exchange (SET) Index fell 3.5% while the
MSCI Thailand Index fell 4.3% from April 9 to 12.[5] This recent market
correction is small in magnitude relative to the volatility in day-to-day
emerging markets even in the absence of any news.

The Thailand Stock Exchange is closed from April 13 to 14 for the Songkran
Festival, Thailands New Year, and offers some respite and a period of
reflection for both parties. Thai politicians are known to be very flexible
in their stances and it is a matter of trade-offs.  Hopefully, this
provides time for leaders on both sides to negotiate and diffuse the
situation on the streets.  Remaining calm allows everyone to think clearly,
and these are traits required for both politicians and investors alike.
[1] Source: Tourism Authority of Thailand, as of end March 2010.
[2] Source: Thailand National Statistical Office, as of end March 2010.
[3] Source: MSCI, as of April 9, 2010.
[4] Source: Factset, as of end March 2010.
[5] Source: Factset, as of April 13, 2010.


http://mobius.blog.franklintempleton.co ... -thailand/

[picklife]

รอนักแปลครับ อิอิ

[arica]

รอนักแปลครับ อิอิ

mee too

[por_jai]

รอนักแปลครับ อิอิ

น้องปิ๊กถ้ามีปัญหาเรื่องแปล ผมแนะนำให้เปิดดิคเฉพาะตอนนี้ก็พอครับ

We have been investing in Thailand for almost 15
years, and Thailand has been subjected to continuous macro and political
turmoil over this period.  The series of political issues from the Asian
crisis in 1997 to recent fears of the Thai King’s waning health late last
year, have not impacted the long-term growth outlook for Thailand.  Our
investment philosophy and process stresses the importance of having a
long-term investment perspective, and companies are typically assessed
based on a 5-year investment horizon.

     
     ขอบคุณท่านร๊อค
     ไม่ได้เจอกันนาน
     ถอดเหล็กดัดฟันหรือยังครับ

[jung_oh]

จัดเว็บนี้ไป

http://translate.google.co.th/?hl=th&tab=wT#

[sunrise]

สรุปว่า long-term ยังดีอยู่
ระยะสั้นแย่ครับ

มี impact ต่อการท่องเทียวเยอะหน่อยที่มีคนทำงานอยู่เยอะ ซึ่งคาดว่าจะมีผลต่อ GDPประมาณ 2-3%

แต่ที่เค้าว่ามายังไม่ได้คิดเรื่องที่เสื้อแดงจะบุกสีลมนะครับ

[Blueocean]

ยังไม่มีไครแปลผมแปลให้ก้ได้ครับ


จับประโยคสำคันนะครับ

"We are more bullish on the
long-term opportunities for the Thai economy and market."

Mobius มองในด้านตลาดกระทิงอยู่ใน การลงทุนระยะยาว

"While the current political crisis in Thailand poses big headline risks to
stocks over the short term, it is not new or unexpected for the country."

การขัดแย้งทางการเมืองไม่ไช่เรื่องที่แปลกใหม่สำหรับประเทศไทยเลย, มันมีความเสี่ยงในการลงทุนระยะสั้นเท่านั้น

Since absolute monarchy was abolished in Thailand in 1932, there have been about 20 successful and failed coups, numerous unrests, and several changes in the constitution.  We have been investing in Thailand for almost 15 years.

ตั้งแต่ เลิกล้ม ระบอบสมบูรณาญาสิทธิราชย ในปี 1932, มี รัฐประหาร ประมาน 20 ครั้ง สำเหร๊จบ้าง ไม่สำเหร๊จบ้าง, และการเปลี่ยนแปลง รัฐธรรมนูญ อีกหลายๆครัง , เราก้ยัง ลงทุนในประเทศไทยมาเกือบ 15ปีแล้ว


"...have not impacted the long-term growth outlook for Thailand.  

เหตุการทั้งหมด ไม่มีผลต่อ ทัศนียภาพ การลงทุนลระยะยาวของเรา

ปิดท้ายด้วย

Investments in the financial services sector, such as banks, which
focus more on the domestic market, and energy sectors are areas that we expect will thrive over the long run when the economy recovers.

เราคิดว่าการลงทุนใน อุตสาหรกรรม ด้านการเงิน และพลังงาน ที่เกี่ยวกับตลาดภายในประเทศ จะให้ผลที่ดีหลังจาก เศษกิจฟื้นตัวแล้ว


หวังว่าคงเป็นประโหยดนะครับ

ขอโทดที่พิมไทยผิดบ้างถูกบ้างนะครับ

[โว้กว้าก]

โอ๊ะโอ หนุ่มลูกครึ่งมาแปลให้ พิมพ์ผิดบ้างไม่เป็นไรปรับปรุงให้ดีขึ้นได้ครับ

ขอบคุณครับ

[cashcycle]

ขอบคุณท่านร๊อคสำหรับบทความดีๆครับ

[moonchild]

ขอบคุณครับ

[picklife]

น้องปิ๊กถ้ามีปัญหาเรื่องแปล ผมแนะนำให้เปิดดิคเฉพาะตอนนี้ก็พอครับ

We have been investing in Thailand for almost 15
years, and Thailand has been subjected to continuous macro and political
turmoil over this period.

[picklife]

[quote="Blueocean"]ยังไม่มีไครแปลผมแปลให้ก้ได้ครับ


จับประโยคสำคันนะครับ

"We are more bullish on the
long-term opportunities for the Thai economy and market."

Mobius มองในด้านตลาดกระทิงอยู่ใน การลงทุนระยะยาว

"While the current political crisis in Thailand poses big headline risks to
stocks over the short term, it is not new or unexpected for the country."

การขัดแย้งทางการเมืองไม่ไช่เรื่องที่แปลกใหม่สำหรับประเทศไทยเลย, มันมีความเสี่ยงในการลงทุนระยะสั้นเท่านั้น

Since absolute monarchy was abolished in Thailand in 1932, there have been about 20 successful and failed coups, numerous unrests, and several changes in the constitution.