SEVEN HABITS FOR FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS

[Tibular]

SEVEN HABITS FOR FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS
AND BUSINESS NEWS REPORTING

Journalists and analysts know that earnings may not really be earnings and that press releases can be a
way for a company to spotlight good news only. Add to that the myriad of technical terms, semantic issues,
and acronyms, and one can easily get lost trying to discern the real headline.
To help navigate through the maze of financial data, CFA Institute created this checklist to use when
analyzing a company and its financial statements and to better understand the due diligence that
professionals undertake in developing successful investment strategies for 2006..
Habit #1 - Read the 10-K and 10-Q Reports Before the Earnings Season Starts
Read thoroughly the companys latest 10-K and its most recent 10-Q reports before earnings season begins.
Doing so helps you to better understand the companys structure, the nature of the industry, and how the
company actually makes money. If you have been covering the same company, a review will remind you of
what the company has recently earned. If you havent followed the company before, a review will give you a
baseline upon which to compare the upcoming report.
At a minimum, read and review these 10-K sections:
1. Business Overview
2. Products and Services Offered
3. Industry Overview and Competition
4. Management Strategy
5. Managements Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) of the Period Covered
6. The Independent Auditors Opinion
7. Cash Flow Statement
8. Balance Sheet
9. Income Statement
10. Footnotes to the Financial Statements
11. And last, but most important, Key Risk Factors
Key Risk Factors is a severely underreported and overlooked topic in business news today. Journalists
should report these risks relative to how the company announces its performance. Imagine if, during the
years of the Internet bubble, a technology company included any one of its Key Risk Factors in its earnings
release. Would investors have learned and paid more attention to the fact that these companies would not
make a profit for several years?
Also, journalists should study annual reports to garner interesting and useful insights into why things are
happening and not just what appears to be happening. Obviously, this objective is not different from
analysts goals. Analysts can easily determine what is happening, but it is the why that matters, and the
implications of that why for the future of an investment. In this case, the interests of journalists and analysts
are aligned here.
Reading the press release after doing this homework will make the acronyms easier to understand, the
smoke and mirrors more obvious, and the context of the companys financials more apparent.

[Tibular]

Habit #1 - Read the 10-K and 10-Q Reports Before the Earnings Season Starts

ขอแปลให้นิดหน่อยนะครับ

อ่านแบบ 56-1 และรายงานประจำปี ก่อนบริษัทประกาศผลดำิเินินงานเพื่อให้เข้าใจโครงสร้างบริษัท ธรรมชาติของอุตสาหกรรม และที่มาที่ไปของรายได้ ซึ่งถ้าเราเคยอ่านแบบ 56-1 และรายงานประจำปีของบริษัทมาก่อนแล้ว จะทำให้เราเข้าใจที่มาที่ไปของผลกำไรของบริษัทมากขึ้น หรือถ้าเรายังไม่เคยติดตามบริษัทนั้นเลย ก็เป็นโอกาสในการทำความรู้จักกับบริษัทเพื่อเป็นพื้นฐานในการวิเคราะห์ต่อไป...

สนใจที่ปัจจัยความเสี่ยงต่างๆให้ดีๆ เพราะสวนใหญ่แล้วข่าวสารธุรกิจจะไม่ไ้ด้รายงาน และมองข้ามไปเสมอ...

[Tibular]

Habit #2 - Maintain Spreadsheets of Historical Company Financial Statements

Track financial statements through the same tool financial analysts use: spreadsheet software. Developing
these spreadsheets now will save time.
Journalists should keep a database of a companys financial statements for the last five years and,
separately, the last 12 quarters. Include the Cash Flow Statement, Balance Sheet, and Income Statement.
By reviewing trends in the financial statements, you will have a broader understanding of the companys:
Financial health
Profitability
Cash balance and cash flow generation
Debt levels
Asset financing
With this spreadsheet, you can then easily add calculations, determine ratios, and develop a benchmark of
the companys performance and financial condition against its competitors. Maintain a separate spreadsheet
for each company analyzed just like Wall Street analysts do. Doing so will build a better picture of the
company and its historical performance.

อันนี้ก็ควรเก็บข้อมูลทางการเงิน หรืองบการเงินอย่างน้อยห้าปี และปีล่าสุดด้วย งบการเงินจะบอกเราถึง สุขภาพทางการเิงิน การทำกำไร เงินสด กระแสเงินสด ระดับของหนี้ ฯลฯ

[Tibular]

Habit #3 - Never Assume That Increased Revenue and Net Income Mean That a Company Is Making
More Money

When a company shows increasing revenue and net income, it does not necessarily mean that it has the
money to pay its bills. Prior to the biggest bankruptcies in recent history, revenue and net income were
always overstated and never showed a companys true financial health.
Here are some examples to consider:
Reported revenue can actually be estimated. Publicly traded hospitals recognize revenue based
on optimistic estimates of what they think they will collect from Medicare and other insurers. This
may not reflect the true amount actually collected and could be significantly less than what the
hospital billed the government (the typical hospitals largest customer).
Reported revenue can reflect sales to distributors, not to the ultimate user. The automobile
industry recognizes revenue when the car leaves the factory for delivery to the dealership, not when it
is actually sold.
Revenues are recognized when credit is given to the customer. The more credit a company
offers, the more revenue it recognizes even though cash is not received. This may not reflect the
true health of the companys operations.
Simply put, if revenues can be estimated or overstated, so can net income. Before reporting percentage
increases or decreases as part of a headline or first paragraph, journalists should review the companys
Income Statement and revenue footnotes to see how the company is actually recognizing revenue.
Journalists and investors need to know not only why reported revenue increased or decreased, but also how
the company came to that conclusion. This information and whether it results from volume changes, price
changes, increased credit extension, etc. is reported in the MD&A.

เมื่อบริษัทแสดงรายไ้ด้ หรือกำไรเิ่พิ่มขึ้น นั่นอาจไม่ได้หมายความอย่างนั้นจริงๆ เพราะรายได้อาจมาจากประมาณการ นโยบายการรับรู้รายได้ หรือให้เครดิตลูกหนี้มากขึ้นซึ่งจะทำให้ยอดขายเพิ่มขึ้น...

...นักลงทุนไม่เพียงแต่ต้องการทราบว่าทำไมรายได้ถึงเพิ่มขึ้นหรือลดลง แต่ต้องการรู้ถึงเหตุผลของรายได้นั้นด้วย เช่นมาจาก ปริมาณขายที่เปลี่ยนแปลง
ราคาที่เปลี่ยนแปลง หรือการเพิ่มเครดิตให้ลูกค้าเพื่อต้องการขายสินค้าได้มากขึ้น ฯลฯ

[Tibular]

Habit #4 - Always Review the Cash Flow Statement First

A companys true value is based on the amount of cash flow, not net income, it produces (see Habit #2 for the
logic). The Cash Flow Statement allows investors to compare how much cash came into the company during
the period, where it came from, how much was used, and what it was used for.

Each section of this statement is self-descriptive, reflects managements strategy and actions, and can be a
leading indicator of what will eventually show up on the Income Statement. Cash inflows are positive
numbers, while cash outflows are negative numbers, usually noted in parentheses.

Cash Flow from Operating Activities - shows how much cash came from sales of the companys
goods and services, less how much cash was used to create and sell those goods and services.
Analysts generally like a positive number for the net number for this section. Nonetheless, high
growth companies (such as biotech and tech) tend to show negative Cash Flow from Operations in
the early years because of their need to manufacture more products to meet increased demand.

Cash Flow from Investing Activities - typically a negative number, this reflects what the company
has spent on capital expenditures (e.g., new equipment) and acquisitions. Analysts normally
would like to see a company re-invest capital into its business by at least the rate of depreciation
expense each year. If a company does not reinvest, it may artificially show higher cash inflow in the
current year that may not be sustainable for the businesss long-term health. Analysts prefer to see a
company always reinvesting in itself.

Cash Flow from Financing Activities Studies have shown that expansion plans for a company,
which are generally reflected in the Investing Activities section, tend to be 70 percent funded by Cash
Flow from Operations. The remaining 30 percent usually comes from outside sources such as
issuance of debt security or stock. All cash inflows and outflows from issuances, repayments, stock
buybacks, or shareholder dividend payments are reflected here.

Journalists should track and report two key cash flow measures and the changes in those measures over time
rather than simply net income or earnings per share.

Cash Flow from Operations - shows how much cash the business generated from operations during
the quarter or year. Changes in this clearly pre-empt changes in future net income. Analysts love
seeing this go up.

Free Cash Flow = Cash Flow from Operations less Capital Expenditures (or also known as
Purchase of Property, Plant and Equipment). The more free cash flow generated during the period,
the more power a company has to expand, pay dividends, pay down debt, or buy back stock.

Also, be sure to read the Liquidity and Capital Expenditures footnotes section of the 10-K Report that shed
light on changes in the Cash Flow Statement. It can usually be found in a section called the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A), and typically describes where the cash was spent and how the company plans on financing its future growth.

อ่านงบกระแสเงินสดก่อน เพราะมูลค่าแท้จริงของบริษัทขึ้นอยู่กับกระแสเงินสด ไม่ใช่กำไรสุทธิ เราควรเข้าใจกระแสเงินสดจากกิจกรรมการดำเินินงาน กระแสเงินสดจากกิจกรรมการลงทุน กระแสเงินสดจากกิจกรรมทางการเงิน ดูการใช้จ่ายเงินของบริษัทดีๆว่าจะใช้อย่างไรเื่พื่อการเติบโตในอนาคต

[Tibular]

Habit #5 - Review the Balance Sheet in Terms of Dollars and Percentage of Total Assets

The balance sheet gives the reader a greater sense of what the company owns and what it owes. It gives an
indication of the resources a company has to help it grow during economic booms and to survive during bad
times. Key line items to review and track include:

Accounts Receivable - This item is an indication of the methods a company uses to sell its products
and services and how quickly it is collecting cash from its customers, a prime factor in a companys
ability to pay bills and remain solvent and profitable.

Inventory (if part of business model) Some companies (such as retailers after a holiday season)
have a high risk of getting caught with too much inventory. When companies find themselves in that
situation, they have little option but to sell their inventory at reduced values, sometimes below cost.
Tracking inventory size relative to total assets and revenues indicates how the business and the
industry are doing. The inventory growth rate compared to the revenue growth rate is a good
indicator. If inventories grow faster than sales, it is almost always a negative factor.

Debt Levels - Having too much debt, relative to cash flows require to pay for interest and debt
repayments, is one way a company can quickly go bankrupt. Having too little debt may restrict a
companys ability to grow. For many capital-intensive / manufacturing businesses, debt can be a very
high number that journalists always need to track. Journalists need to look at what is reported both
under the current liabilities those that are due within the next year, including current maturities of
long-term debt and the amount of long-term debt, net of current maturities.

Tracking the numbers is great, but futile without a benchmark. Converting all Balance Sheet line items to a
Percentage of Total Assets will present a better picture of both the companys financial stability and how the
company compares with its competitors and industry.

Journalists should calculate the Percentage of Total Asset numbers on a spreadsheet for the last five years
and, separately, for the last 12 quarters. Since some industries are cyclical and are leading indicators of the
economys health and this technique may predict a recession. Also, looking for large changes and unusual
trends will help when questioning management and extracting a clearer picture of the companys financial
strategy and ultimately its health.

Caveat: The Balance Sheet does not report everything that a company owns or owes and is prone to
financial manipulation. Certain types of debts may not be included in the financial statements, but
rather in the footnotes. This is what accountants call Off-Balance Sheet (OBS) Debt, examples of
which include:

Leases (specifically Operating Leases)
Guarantees
Special Purpose Entities (or subsidiaries not included)
Contingent Liabilities

OBS Debt must always be added to the Total Debt amounts found on the Balance Sheet to come up with an
adjusted debt number.

Likewise, companies have assets such as patents, trademarks, and research on new products and services
that are not always reported on the balance sheet. Information about these factors often can be found either
in the footnotes to the financial statements or the MD&A. Increasingly, these are the assets that generate
the most value for a company and, consequently, should be reviewed closely.

ดูงบดุลให้ดีๆ งลดุลบอกถึงสินทรัพย์ที่บริษัทเป็นเจ้าของ และหนี้สินที่บริษัทต้องจ่ายในอนาคต ซึ่งเป็นตัวบ่งชี้ถึงทรัพยากรของบริษัทที่จะข่วยในการเิติบโตในยามเศรษฐกิจดี และเป็นที่พึ่งของบริษัทยามประสบกับภาวะตกต่ำ ส่วนที่ต้องใส่ใจเป็นพิเศษคือ บัญชีลูกหนี้ สินค้าคงคลัง หนี้สิน...

งบดุลไม่ได้บอกทุกอย่างที่บริษัทเป็นเจ้าของหรือหนี้ทุกอย่างที่มี หนี้นอกงบดุลควรต้องจับตาดู เช่น สัญญาเช่า โดยเฉพาะสัญญาเช่าดำเนินงาน สัญญารับรองต่างๆ หนี้สินต่อเนื่อง และในทางกลับกัน เครื่องหมายการค้า การวิจัยสินค้าและบริการใหม่ๆ ก็ไม่มีบอกในงบดุลเช่นกัน แต่ข้อมูลเหล่านี้อาจพบได้บ่อยๆในหมายเหตุประกอบงบการเงิน

[Tibular]

Habit #7 - Read the Companys Earnings Release

As you write your story, keep a few things in mind:

Net income or earnings can easily be manipulated within the Income Statement given the
flexibility of accounting rules. Think about why companies are always beating earnings per share
(EPS) estimates by a penny? Why not two or three or four pennies? Also, note that under
conditions of generally rising prices, even when inflation is just 1% or 2%, records for earnings and
revenues are not unusual.

Flag anything that seems like or acts like Pro-Forma Earnings. This is the companys way of
saying it has a one-time explanation for why it lost money or did not make as much as it did the prior
year or quarter. Examples of this are words like write-offs, charge-offs, and one-time charge.
The money was spent on something that is no longer useful.

Regularly reference Cash Flow from Operations and Free Cash Flow and generally explain
what the terms include and exclude. These numbers are powerful tools that tell an audience
about the financial health of a company. These two calculations are also less prone to manipulation
as they represent large movements in cash and quickly reflect managements strategy.

Always read the footnotes to financial statements. A majority of the truth of the companys
health is buried here; the numbers alone rarely tell the full story. Take time to review and ask
questions regarding any vague statements.

หวังว่าคงเป็นประโยชน์กับเพื่อนๆนะครับ

[Magneto]

มีประโยชน์ครับ  :o

[large]

เยี่ยมครับ ขอบคุณมากครับ

[VI Wannabe]

ขอบคุณสำหรับ บทความดีๆครับ (เติม Habit ที่ 6 ที่ตกไปให้  :D  )


Habit #6 - Review the Income Statement Items Both in Terms of Dollars and as a Percentage of Total
Revenues

After analyzing the Cash Flow Statement and Balance Sheet, journalists can reaffirm their conclusions about
the company’s financial health by reviewing the Income Statement.  As an example, had you analyzed an
airline’s financial statements, you would have actually noticed if its business model was not working and
whether profitability was declining or negative. These conclusions can be found on the company’s Cash Flow
Statements, namely with a negative Cash Flow from Operations and negative Free Cash Flow.

When reviewing the Income Statement, it is very easy to get caught up in the actual dollar amounts (e.g.,
Gross Margin going from $500,000 to $600,000).  However, Gross Margin as a Percentage of Total Revenue
is more important and should be calculated to determine whether profit margins are increasing or declining.  

Again, an Income Statement benchmark is necessary.  Converting all Income Statement line items to a
Percentage of Total Revenue gives a better picture of performance trends and margins and how both
compare with a company’s history, competitors and industry peers.

Calculate each line item as a Percentage of Total Revenue on a spreadsheet for at least the last five years
and separately for the last 12 quarters.  Some industries are cyclical and are leading indicators of the
economy’s health and, as such, can even predict a recession using this technique.  Also, looking for large
changes and unusual trends will help when asking questions of management and may provide a clearer
picture of the company’s financial health.

[j21]

ขอบคุณครับ