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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 3CV4qRfC3Y
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NinjaTurtle
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โพสต์ที่ 2
Asia Receives Much-Needed Reminder From Bangkok: William Pesek
By William Pesek
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- ``What was she thinking?'' It's a question investors have been asking of Thailand's central-bank head ever since her move in December to impose capital controls.
Tarisa Watanagase took that debatable step to deter currency speculation that drove the baht to a nine-year high. It not only sent Thai assets spiraling lower, but also had traders wondering if Mahathir Mohamad had suddenly been hired as an adviser to the Bank of Thailand.
Mahathir, of course, made huge waves in global markets in 1998 with capital controls while he was Malaysia's prime minister. Many investors have never forgiven Mahathir for it, and while Thailand's actions were far more benign, Tarisa will long be trying to explain herself.
Yet spend an hour with the 57-year-old and you will see that Thailand's plight is as perplexing as it is prescient. It's perplexing because Asia's ninth-biggest economy is clearly reaching for ways to stop the inevitable -- a rising currency; prescient because Thailand is again the vanguard of what other economies may face this year.
In 1997, Thailand was the first domino to fall as capital fled, setting in motion a regional financial crisis. A decade on, Thailand is on the frontlines of how so-called global imbalances are manifesting themselves in developing economies. This time, the issue isn't capital flight; it's too much capital flowing in.
``This is not an issue just for Thailand,'' Tarisa said in an interview in Bangkok. ``It can be an issue for a number of small economies in the region. It can be an issue for the entire region. It can be a global issue as well if it's left untackled and the problem keeps compiling in terms of the seriousness.''
Valid Point
She has a point, and one with which Asian central banks will grapple for some time.
History is likely to show Thailand's baht controls -- which Tarisa insisted were her idea -- to be a mistake. Even so, Thailand's premise that it needs to use tools beyond conventional monetary policy to cap the currency speaks volumes about risks facing Asia.
The central bank acted when the baht came ``precariously close to breaking the 35 mark'' against the dollar, Tarisa explained. It's not hard to understand why that level is worrisome; exports account for 60 percent of gross domestic product. Yet Tarisa's focus on the baht is really about something bigger: control.
Liquidity Glut
The hot money zooming Thailand's way is a byproduct of a global liquidity glut. A result of low inflation-adjusted interest rates in developed economies, excess money is making its way to riskier assets. The more liquidity that flows in, the more credit growth Thailand experiences and the greater the risk of inflation and asset bubbles.
While the phenomenon is affecting other developing economies, Thailand's currency gains have been especially big. The baht surged about 16 percent last year against the dollar, prompting an outcry from Thai exporters.
The last thing the military leaders, who grabbed power in a Sept. 19 coup, want is to lose control of an economy involving 64 million people. And so, efforts have been taken to reduce market volatility -- efforts that have only added to that volatility.
Investors in bonds, real-estate mutual funds and foreign- currency borrowings have 30 percent of their funds locked up, interest-free, for a year under the capital controls. Similar restrictions on stock investments were dropped on Dec. 19, after a 15 percent plunge in Thailand's benchmark SET Index.
Unconventional Times
Not surprisingly, the actions have been denounced widely. ``I've been criticized for taking the market by surprise by taking unconventional methods, especially capital controls,'' Tarisa said. ``Conventional wisdom works only when you are in a conventional environment.''
Tarisa's handiwork, right or wrong, should serve as a warning about where the global economy is headed.
The world's biggest economies and its most vibrant regions are engaged in a dangerous game of musical chairs. Asians blame the U.S. for Asia's policy of hoarding dollar reserves. Europeans blame Asia's mercantilist ways for Europe's declining competitiveness. The U.S. blames Asians for saving too much and not consuming more.
The trouble is there won't be enough chairs to go around and the music may stop at any moment. Economies big and small need to get serious about tackling their own imbalances before they spill even further into the global sphere.
Hot Money
Thailand may merely have too much of a good thing on its hands. A decade ago, investors couldn't wait to get out of the baht. Nowadays money can't flow into Thailand fast enough. In normal times, the baht's advance would be a sign of confidence, especially for a nation that has experienced a coup and deadly bombings in the last four months.
From where Tarisa sits, though, the return of hot money is anything but benign. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao this week called on Asia to ``intensify monitoring of hot money.'' Also, South Korea eased rules to allow individuals and companies to invest more outside the country to curb the won's rise.
It would appear that, once again, events in Thailand threaten to be a harbinger of things to come in Asia.
``I certainly hope what we were forced to undertake in December last year would ring an alarm, a wakeup call,'' Tarisa said. ``I would like to ring an alarm bell that the world needs to talk and find a more balanced way, a more effective way of dealing with the situation.''
(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Bangkok, through the Tokyo newsroom at [email protected] .
Last Updated: January 16, 2007 13:44 EST
By William Pesek
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- ``What was she thinking?'' It's a question investors have been asking of Thailand's central-bank head ever since her move in December to impose capital controls.
Tarisa Watanagase took that debatable step to deter currency speculation that drove the baht to a nine-year high. It not only sent Thai assets spiraling lower, but also had traders wondering if Mahathir Mohamad had suddenly been hired as an adviser to the Bank of Thailand.
Mahathir, of course, made huge waves in global markets in 1998 with capital controls while he was Malaysia's prime minister. Many investors have never forgiven Mahathir for it, and while Thailand's actions were far more benign, Tarisa will long be trying to explain herself.
Yet spend an hour with the 57-year-old and you will see that Thailand's plight is as perplexing as it is prescient. It's perplexing because Asia's ninth-biggest economy is clearly reaching for ways to stop the inevitable -- a rising currency; prescient because Thailand is again the vanguard of what other economies may face this year.
In 1997, Thailand was the first domino to fall as capital fled, setting in motion a regional financial crisis. A decade on, Thailand is on the frontlines of how so-called global imbalances are manifesting themselves in developing economies. This time, the issue isn't capital flight; it's too much capital flowing in.
``This is not an issue just for Thailand,'' Tarisa said in an interview in Bangkok. ``It can be an issue for a number of small economies in the region. It can be an issue for the entire region. It can be a global issue as well if it's left untackled and the problem keeps compiling in terms of the seriousness.''
Valid Point
She has a point, and one with which Asian central banks will grapple for some time.
History is likely to show Thailand's baht controls -- which Tarisa insisted were her idea -- to be a mistake. Even so, Thailand's premise that it needs to use tools beyond conventional monetary policy to cap the currency speaks volumes about risks facing Asia.
The central bank acted when the baht came ``precariously close to breaking the 35 mark'' against the dollar, Tarisa explained. It's not hard to understand why that level is worrisome; exports account for 60 percent of gross domestic product. Yet Tarisa's focus on the baht is really about something bigger: control.
Liquidity Glut
The hot money zooming Thailand's way is a byproduct of a global liquidity glut. A result of low inflation-adjusted interest rates in developed economies, excess money is making its way to riskier assets. The more liquidity that flows in, the more credit growth Thailand experiences and the greater the risk of inflation and asset bubbles.
While the phenomenon is affecting other developing economies, Thailand's currency gains have been especially big. The baht surged about 16 percent last year against the dollar, prompting an outcry from Thai exporters.
The last thing the military leaders, who grabbed power in a Sept. 19 coup, want is to lose control of an economy involving 64 million people. And so, efforts have been taken to reduce market volatility -- efforts that have only added to that volatility.
Investors in bonds, real-estate mutual funds and foreign- currency borrowings have 30 percent of their funds locked up, interest-free, for a year under the capital controls. Similar restrictions on stock investments were dropped on Dec. 19, after a 15 percent plunge in Thailand's benchmark SET Index.
Unconventional Times
Not surprisingly, the actions have been denounced widely. ``I've been criticized for taking the market by surprise by taking unconventional methods, especially capital controls,'' Tarisa said. ``Conventional wisdom works only when you are in a conventional environment.''
Tarisa's handiwork, right or wrong, should serve as a warning about where the global economy is headed.
The world's biggest economies and its most vibrant regions are engaged in a dangerous game of musical chairs. Asians blame the U.S. for Asia's policy of hoarding dollar reserves. Europeans blame Asia's mercantilist ways for Europe's declining competitiveness. The U.S. blames Asians for saving too much and not consuming more.
The trouble is there won't be enough chairs to go around and the music may stop at any moment. Economies big and small need to get serious about tackling their own imbalances before they spill even further into the global sphere.
Hot Money
Thailand may merely have too much of a good thing on its hands. A decade ago, investors couldn't wait to get out of the baht. Nowadays money can't flow into Thailand fast enough. In normal times, the baht's advance would be a sign of confidence, especially for a nation that has experienced a coup and deadly bombings in the last four months.
From where Tarisa sits, though, the return of hot money is anything but benign. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao this week called on Asia to ``intensify monitoring of hot money.'' Also, South Korea eased rules to allow individuals and companies to invest more outside the country to curb the won's rise.
It would appear that, once again, events in Thailand threaten to be a harbinger of things to come in Asia.
``I certainly hope what we were forced to undertake in December last year would ring an alarm, a wakeup call,'' Tarisa said. ``I would like to ring an alarm bell that the world needs to talk and find a more balanced way, a more effective way of dealing with the situation.''
(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Bangkok, through the Tokyo newsroom at [email protected] .
Last Updated: January 16, 2007 13:44 EST
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jody4003
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ผมว่าคล้ายกันมากครับ เทียบกับวิกฤติคราวก่อนเพียงแต่สลับกันจากไหลออกเป็นไหลเข้า ตอนนี้ดูเหมือนจะมีคนเห็นช่องโหว่บางอย่างจาก monetery policy ของไทยซึ่งเค้าทำกำไรได้ ผมว่าเราเตรียมรับแรงกระแทกใว้บ้างก็ดีนะครับ ไม่รู้คราวนี้จะรุนแรงมากน้อยแค่ไหน
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