เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

การลงทุนแบบเน้นคุณค่า ลงทุนหุ้น VI เน้นที่ปัจจัยพื้นฐานเป็นหลัก

โพสต์ โพสต์
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 1

โพสต์

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2 ... ccess.aspx

In his must-read book, Poor Charlie's Almanac, Munger puts forth a 10-step checklist that even the most inexperienced investors could benefit from.
1. Measure risk
All investment evaluations should begin by measuring risk, especially reputational.

It's crucially important to understand that from time to time, your investments won't turn out the way you wanted. To protect your portfolio, don't set yourself up for complete failure in the first place. Giving yourself a large margin of safety, avoiding people of questionable character, and only taking on risk when you can be sure you'll be satisfactorily rewarded are all steps in the right direction. Companies like Chipotle (NYSE: CMG ) might have perfectly bright futures, but when their shares are priced for perfection, they might nonetheless prove too risky for savvy investors.

2. Be independent
Only in fairy tales are emperors told they're naked.

With stockbrokers often rewarded for activity, not successful investments, it's critically important to make sure you believe that what you're doing is right. Chasing others' opinions may seem logical, but investors like Munger and Buffett often succeed by going against the grain. Big Berkshire investments such as Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO ) , and more recently Petrochina (NYSE: PTR ) , were largely ignored by the masses when they were first made.

3. Prepare ahead
The only way to win is to work, work, work, and hope to have a few insights.

It shouldn't surprise you that the best investments aren't the ones we typically read about in the paper. The diamonds in the rough are out there, but finding them requires effort. Buffett reads thousands of annual reports to cultivate ideas -- even if he only comes up with a few candidates each year. Munger advocates a constant curiosity for nearly everything in life. If you never stop asking the "whys" in what you do, you won't have trouble staying motivated.

4. Have intellectual humility
Acknowledging what you don't know is the dawning of wisdom.

Perhaps most crucially to Berkshire's success, its leaders never stray away from their comfort zones. In investing, a clear idea of what the business will look like in the future counts most. If you struggle to comprehend what the business does today, you might as well be throwing darts. While companies like Google (Nasdaq: GOOG ) and Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX ) are certainly titans in their own right today, they might look drastically different in five to 10 years.

5. Analyze rigorously
Use effective checklists to minimize errors and omissions.

The numbers don't lie. When researching investments, Buffett and Munger like to try to estimate the security's worth before they even look at its price. They are businessmen, not stock-market junkies. They focus their brainpower on the value of businesses, not convoluted economic forecasts or intricate market-timing techniques. Munger is incredibly brilliant, but the analytical rigor of his investment decisions is based around simplicity, not complexity.

6. Allocate assets wisely
Proper allocation of capital is an investor's No. 1 job.

In the early days of Munger's investment partnership, he held very few securities. When good ideas came, he poured significant capital into them; otherwise, he simply enjoyed the California sun. The amount of money employed in each of your investments should relate directly to its attractiveness. When you find a great investment, don't be afraid to bet big on it.

7. Have patience
Resist the natural human bias to act.

Munger said it best himself: "Half of Warren's time is sitting on his ass and reading; the other half is spent talking on the phone or in person to a highly gifted person that he trusts and trust him." While it can be tempting to jump in and out of the market, true fortunes are made from big commitments in quality companies, held indefinitely. When you're done with that, find a hobby. Spending all day watching stock tickers won't do you much good.

8. Be decisive
When proper circumstances present themselves, act with decisiveness and conviction.

This also goes back to not following the herd. When others are jubilant, you should be scared, and vice versa. Don't let others' emotions sway you; the market masses should help you find opportunities in their absence, not guide you down their own path to mediocrity.

9. Be ready for change
Accept unremovable complexity.

Investing success requires us to accept inevitable changes. Munger and Buffett hated railroads for decades, but as the times changed, they threw their old thoughts out the door and invested billions. The world around us won't always conform to our preferences and prejudices, and sometimes our best ideas will prove incorrect. If you aren't willing to roll with a changing market, you may find yourself fighting a lost cause.

10. Stay focused
Keep it simple and remember what you set out to do.

In chasing little, unimportant things, we often overlook huge and critical factors. But by keeping it simple, we can fixate on what really matters: buying good companies at a good price, and holding them until they're fully priced.
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 2

โพสต์

http://www.paladinvest.com/pifiles/Mung ... Wisdom.htm
We've really made the money out of high quality businesses. In some cases, we bought the whole business. And in some cases, we just bought a big block of stock. But when you analyze what happened, the big money's been made in the high quality businesses. And most of the other people who've made a lot of money have done so in high quality businesses.

Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you're not going to make much different than a 6% return ‑ even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you'll end up with a fine result.

So the trick is getting into better businesses. And that involves all of these advantages of scale that you could consider momentum effects.
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 3

โพสต์

http://www.paladinvest.com/pifiles/Mung ... Wisdom.htm
And ideally ‑ and we've done a lot of this ‑ you get into a great business which also has a great manager because management matters. For example, it's made a great difference to General Electric that Jack Welch came in instead of the guy who took over Westinghouse ‑ a very great difference. So management matters, too.

And some of it is predictable. I do not think it takes a genius to understand that Jack Welch was a more insightful person and a better manager than his peers in other companies. Nor do I think it took tremendous genius to understand that Disney had basic momentums in place which are very powerful and that Eisner and Wells were very unusual managers.

So you do get an occasional opportunity to get into a wonderful business that's being run by a wonderful manager. And, of course, that's hog heaven day. If you don't load up when you get those opportunities, it's a big mistake.
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 4

โพสต์

However, averaged out, betting on the quality of a business is better than betting on the quality of management. In other words, if you have to choose one, bet on the business momentum, not the brilliance of the manager.
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 5

โพสต์

Within the growth stock model, there's a sub-position: There are actually businesses, that you will find a few times in a lifetime, where any manager could raise the return enormously just by raising prices ‑ and yet they haven't done it. So they have huge untapped pricing power that they're not using. That is the ultimate no-brainer.

That existed in Disney. It's such a unique experience to take your grandchild to Disneyland. You're not doing it that often. And there are lots of people in the country. And Disney found that it could raise those prices a lot and the attendance stayed right up.

So a lot of the great record of Eisner and Wells was utter brilliance but the rest came from just raising prices at Disneyland and Disneyworld and through video cassette sales of classic animated movies.

At Berkshire Hathaway, Warren and I raised the prices of See's Candy a little faster than others might have. And, of course, we invested in Coca-Cola ‑ which had some untapped pricing power. And it also had brilliant management. So a Goizueta and Keough could do much more than raise prices. It was perfect.
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 6

โพสต์

You will get a few opportunities to profit from finding underpricing. There are actually people out there who don't price everything as high as the market will easily stand. And once you figure that out, it's like finding in the street ‑ if you have the courage of your convictions.

If you look at Berkshire's investments where a lot of the money's been made and you look for the models..
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 7

โพสต์

Let me mention another model. Of course, Gillette and Coke make fairly low‑priced items and have a tremendous marketing advantage all over the world. And in Gillette's case, they keep surfing along new technology which is fairly simple by the standards of microchips. But it's hard for competitors to do.
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 8

โพสต์

รูปภาพ
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 9

โพสต์

A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom As It Relates To Investment
Management & Business
C harles Munger, USC Bus ines s School, 1994
O ne advantage of C oca-C ola is that it's available
almos t everywhere in the world.
Well, suppose you have a little soft drink. Exac tly how do you make it
available all over the Earth?
T he worldwide dis tribution setup—which is
s lowly won by a big enterprise—gets to be a huge advantage.... A nd if you
think about it, once you get enough advantages of that type, it can become
very hard for anybody to dis lodge you.
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 10

โพสต์

Here's a model that we've had trouble with. Maybe you'll be able to figure it
out better. Many markets get down to two or three big competitors—or five
or s ix. A nd in some of those markets , nobody makes any money to speak
of. But in others , everybody does very well.
O ver the years , we've tried to figure out why the competition in some
markets gets sort of rational from the inves tor's point of view so that the
shareholders do well, and in other markets , there's des truc tive competition
that des troys shareholder wealth.
I f it's a pure commodity like airline seats , you can unders tand why no one
makes any money. A s we s it here, jus t think of what airlines have given to
the world—safe travel, greater experience, time with your loved ones , you
name it. Y et, the net amount of money that's been made by the
shareholders of airlines s ince Kitty Hawk, is now a negative figure—a
subs tantial negative figure. C ompetition was so intense that, once it was
unleashed by deregulation, it ravaged shareholder wealth in the airline
bus ines s .
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 11

โพสต์

T hen there's another model from mic roeconomic s which I find very
interes ting. When technology moves as fas t as it does in a c ivilizat
ours , you get a phenomenon which I c all competitive des truc tion. Y
know, you have the fines t buggy whip fac tory and all of a sudden in
this little horseles s carriage. A nd before too many years go by, your
whip bus ines s is dead. Y ou either get into a different bus ines s or you
dead—you're des troyed. I t happens again and again and again.
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 12

โพสต์

A nd when these new bus ines ses come in, there are huge advantages for
the early birds . A nd when you're an early bird, there's a model that I call
"surfing"—when a surfer gets up and c atches the wave and jus t s tays
there, he can go a long, long time. But if he gets off the wave, he becomes
mired in shallows ....
But people get long runs when they're right on the edge of the
wave—whether it's Mic rosoft or Intel or all kinds of people, inc luding
National C ash Regis ter in the early days .
A nd, of course, that's exac tly what an inves tor should be looking for. In a
long life, you can expec t to profit heavily from at leas t a few of those
opportunities if you develop the wisdom and will to seize them. A t any rate,
"surfing" is a very powerful model.
However, Berkshire Hathaway , by and large, does not inves t in these
people that are "surfing" on complicated technology. A fter all, we're c ranky
and idiosync ratic—as you may have noticed.
A nd Warren and I don't feel like we have any great advantage in the
high-tech sec tor. In fac t, we feel like we're at a big disadvantage in trying
to unders tand the nature of technical developments in software, computer
chips or what have you. So we tend to avoid that s tuff, based on our
personal inadequac ies .
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 13

โพสต์

I 'm jus t s aying, that mos t of the money came from ten ins ights .
So you can get very remarkable inves tment results if you think more like a
winning pari-mutuel player. Jus t think of it as a heavy odds agains t game
full of c razines s with an oc cas ional mispriced something or other. A nd
you're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a
lifetime. A nd when you get a few, you really load up. I t's jus t that s imple.
When Warren lec tures at bus ines s s c hools , he says , "I could improve your
ultimate financ ial welfare by giving you a ticket with only 20 s lots in it so
that you had 20 punches—representing all the inves tments that you got to
make in a lifetime. A nd once you'd punched through the card, you couldn't
make any more inves tments at all."
He says , "Under those rules , you'd really think carefully about what you did
and you'd be forced to load up on what you'd really thought about. So you'd
do so much better."
A gain, this is a concept that seems perfec tly obvious to me. A nd to Warren
it seems perfec tly obvious . But this is one of the very few bus ines s c las ses
in the U.S. where anybody will be saying so. I t jus t isn't the conventional
wisdom.
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 14

โพสต์

A t any rate, the trouble with what I call the c las s ic Ben Graham concept is
that gradually the world wised up and those real obvious bargains
disappeared. Y ou c ould run your Geiger counter over the rubble and it
wouldn't c lick.
ผู้post
ทำนองว่า..วันหนึ่งถ้า Value Investor เต็มไปหมด คุณส่องเครื่อง scanไป ก็หาไม่เจอหุ้น unfervalue เลย..
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 15

โพสต์

How many of you have 56 brilliant ideas in which you have equal
confidence? Raise your hands , pleas e. How many of you have two or three
ins ights that you have some confidence in? I res t my case.
I 'd say that Berkshire Hathaway's sys tem is adapting to the nature of the
inves tment problem as it really is .
We've really made the money out of high quality bus ines ses . In some
cases , we bought the whole bus ines s . A nd in some cases , we jus t bought a
big block of s tock. But when you analyze what happened, the big money's
been made in the high quality bus ines ses . A nd mos t of the other people
who've made a lot of money have done so in high quality bus ines ses .
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 16

โพสต์

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/s ... ogle.co.th
13 Life Lessons from Warren and Charlie:

1. Lose money and I will forgive you, but lose even a shred of reputation and I will be ruthless [Warren]. This has been echoed across the business world for years and it applies to us all. Life is too short to cut corners to make an extra buck. Wealth can always be recreated but reputation takes a lifetime to build and often only a moment to destroy. As Warren says, “we will not trade reputation for money.”

2. The best defense in a tough economy is to add the most you can to society. Your money can be inflated away but your knowledge and talent cannot [Warren]. No matter the external circumstances, you are always in control of your talent, learning and passion for life. “There will always be opportunities for talent” as Warren says.

3. We get worried when people start to agree with us [Warren]. The best fruit is found out on the limbs. The road less traveled makes all the difference. Make a rule to always stay on the side of the minority in your life’s path and you will likely be greatly rewarded and you’ll certainly experience a lot more excitement.

4. We celebrate wealth only when it’s been fairly won and wisely used [Charlie]. The goal is not to make money at all costs. It’s easy to forget that in a lot of industries and sub-cultures around the U.S. where everyone is in constant competition to keep up with the Joneses. Wealth is worthless if you’ve destroyed all your relationships to attain it. As Charlie says “take the high road. It’s far less crowded.” Sad but often true. Makes it pretty easy to stand out.

5. When you are exceptional you jump off the page. There really isn’t that much competition there [Warren]. Be your own best competitive advantage. Then it doesn’t make a difference what others are doing. You are in control.

6. Do what you’re passionate about. If you do this, there will be few people competing or running faster than you [Warren]. The best way to be exceptional is with passion! As Tony Robbins says every day of his life, “Live with Passion!” And trust me, life is a lot more fun this way.

7. I think I developed courage when I learned I could deal with hardship. You need to get your feet wet and get some failure under your belt [Charlie]. Courage does not grow on its own. Just like a muscle, it must be constantly worked out and developed. Life begins outside your comfort zone and that is where your courage is developed. Most people don’t succeed because they’re afraid to fail. Failure isn’t that bad anyway. It will make you tougher and more likely to win the next time around. No one has succeeded without going through their own failures at some point. To try and fail is much better than to never try. Why not get started early and get some of them out of the way! What’s the worst that could happen anyway? As big wave surfer Laird Hamilton says “If you’re not falling then you’re not learning.”

Charlie Learning

8. There’s no better way to be happier than getting your expectations down [Charlie]. Most unhappiness comes from misaligned and unrealistic expectations of life. Expect the world of yourself, but expect nothing of the world. Then you cannot help but live your life pleasantly surprised.

9. If I can be optimistic while I’m nearly dead, you can deal with a little inflation [Charlie]. This had the crowd laughing out loud. Life is what you make it. Don’t let things get you down. It could always be worse.

10. If the only reason you find for doing something is because others are doing it then that’s not good enough [Warren]. Enough said.

11. Bad behavior is contagious. That’s how human nature works [Warren]. Watch out for this. It can catch you off guard.

12. We’ve done a lot of stupid things but we’ve avoided a small subset of stupidity and that subset is important. It’s about avoiding the dumb things [Charlie]. They hammer this every year. Their success does not come from doing so many things right. It comes from avoiding the things that are terribly wrong. Some say this is two sides of the same coin. But it’s not. It requires a fundamental shift in psychology. The stories are endless of people who did a few things right and were massively successful, but then did something stupid that took them back to zero. Before Charlie and Warren do anything, they “invert, always invert” as Charlie says. They list every way imaginable in which they could fail at a particular task and then take massive effort to avoid those failures. Do that and the success will come automatically.

13. Go to bed a little wiser than when you woke up [Charlie]. This covers the whole meeting in a word. Life is about learning. If you are always learning you can never lose. Keep this as your only rule for the day and the world will be yours for the taking.

Go to bed a little wiser than when you woke up.

-Charlie Munger
blueplanet
Verified User
โพสต์: 1155
ผู้ติดตาม: 1

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 17

โพสต์

ผมว่า น่าจะเป็นบทความที่มีคุณค่ามาก
แต่ผมไม่เข้าใจ ถ้าจะให้เข้าใจคงใช้เวลาหลายวัน
ถ้ามีผู้ใจดี แปลให้ก็เยี่ยมเลย
Blueplanet
nut776
Verified User
โพสต์: 3350
ผู้ติดตาม: 4

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 18

โพสต์

imerlot เขียน:รูปภาพ

หน้าหนุ่มไปไหมอะ
ชาลี แก่ว่า วอเรน นิ

พูดถึงชาลี ไม่ค่อยได้เครดิตเท่าไหร่เลย รวยเงียบๆ แต่หลังๆ ไม่เคยเห็นชื่อ ใน forbes เลย แปลกมาก

ส่วนบทความรอผู้ใจบุญแปล
พี่ web ช่วยหน่อยก็ดีเนอะ
show me money.
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 19

โพสต์

ลุงชาลี บอกให้อ่าน wsj นะครับ
http://www.forbes.com/sites/phildemuth/ ... art-three/
Q: What would you tell a young man today about what he should be reading on a daily basis?

Munger: You’ve got to have a main publication that’s using some editorial discretion because you can’t read 500 pages.
The Wall Street Journal, with its editing, is a very convenient thing for me, and I’ll bet all of you read it, too.
---------------------

ส่วนอันนี้ ลุงชาลี ก็เน้นๆเรื่อง good company มากกว่า พวกก้นบุหรี่
ว่า ถ้าย้อนเวลาได้ ความรู้อะไร อยากให้มี..ย้ำๆ
Q: Given your accumulated wisdom, what do you know today that you wish you knew when you were first started investing in stocks?

Munger: Like Warren [Buffett], when I was young I scrambled around doing anything that would work, and I could get a tiny little obscure company that was too cheap because they were on the pink-sheets, and all kinds of things. As I got more money, I decided I didn’t like all that scratching around. I was thinking about things I didn’t want to think about. I wanted to admire the people who were running the business. I wanted to admire the business, think it well-placed, and going to do well. So, I drifted into this, good people, good company field in my old age, and I found it much more comfortable, and my returns haven’t gone down that much. It’s remarkable.
---

:D
ภาพประจำตัวสมาชิก
Nevercry.boy
สมาชิกสมาคมนักลงทุนเน้นคุณค่า
โพสต์: 4641
ผู้ติดตาม: 23

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 20

โพสต์

ขอบคุณอาจารย์ imerlot มากครับ
เด็กผู้ชายไม่ร้องไห้
http://nevercry-boy.blogspot.com/
ภาพประจำตัวสมาชิก
kongkiti
Verified User
โพสต์: 5830
ผู้ติดตาม: 19

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 21

โพสต์

ขอบคุณ พี่ NB ช่วยขุดกระทู้ขึ้นมาครับ :P
“Its like a finger pointing away to the moon. Don't concentrate on the finger
or you will miss all that heavenly glory.”- Bruce Lee

FAQs เกี่ยวกับแนวทางลงทุนแบบ VI
Blog ใหม่ >> https://www.blockdit.com/articles/5d733 ... 270d7b530
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 22

โพสต์

link
เก่า ข้างบน
หน้า ของ เรื่อง
Source:
Charles Munger, USC Business School, 1994
A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom As It Relates To Investment Management & Business

หายไป ..
เลยไปหา
link
ปัจจุบัน มาให้
2 source
แนะ ว่าควร save เก็บไว้
...
1.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/a- ... -business/

2.
http://www.safalniveshak.com/wp-content ... Munger.pdf

...
:idea: :idea: :idea:
18-percent.JPG






+++
ภาพประจำตัวสมาชิก
Nevercry.boy
สมาชิกสมาคมนักลงทุนเน้นคุณค่า
โพสต์: 4641
ผู้ติดตาม: 23

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 23

โพสต์

kongkiti เขียน:ขอบคุณ พี่ NB ช่วยขุดกระทู้ขึ้นมาครับ :P
มิกล้าครับ อาจารย์ Imerlot ท่านช่วยมาอัพเดทครับ
เด็กผู้ชายไม่ร้องไห้
http://nevercry-boy.blogspot.com/
ภาพประจำตัวสมาชิก
kongkiti
Verified User
โพสต์: 5830
ผู้ติดตาม: 19

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 24

โพสต์

Nevercry.boy เขียน:
kongkiti เขียน:ขอบคุณ พี่ NB ช่วยขุดกระทู้ขึ้นมาครับ :P
มิกล้าครับ อาจารย์ Imerlot ท่านช่วยมาอัพเดทครับ
อ่า เพิ่งเห็นวันที่โพส
ขอบคุณ ท่านพี่ imerlot ด้วยครับ (ไม่ให้เรียกอาจารย์ :P )
“Its like a finger pointing away to the moon. Don't concentrate on the finger
or you will miss all that heavenly glory.”- Bruce Lee

FAQs เกี่ยวกับแนวทางลงทุนแบบ VI
Blog ใหม่ >> https://www.blockdit.com/articles/5d733 ... 270d7b530
imerlot
Verified User
โพสต์: 2697
ผู้ติดตาม: 13

Re: เก็บตก..Munger's Wisdom

โพสต์ที่ 25

โพสต์

ใน worldly wisdom
ตอนหนึ่ง
ลุง พูดถึง textile ว่า เป็น เล้าซี่บิสเนส
{ lousy / terrible commodity / low return (of only about 4% per annum)/ }บิสเนส
อย่างไรว่า
การลงทุนและการพัฒนาใดๆในธุรกิจนี้ไม่ทำให้
ผลกำไรสุดท้าย(bottom line) ดีขึ้น เพราะอะไร
....
For example, when we were in the textile business, which is a terrible commodity business, we were making low-end textiles—which are a real commodity product. And one day, the people came to Warren and said, “They’ve invented a new loom that we think will do twice as much work as our old ones.”

And Warren said, “Gee, I hope this doesn’t work because if it does, I’m going to close the mill.” And he meant it.

What was he thinking? He was thinking, “It’s a lousy business. We’re earning substandard returns and keeping it open just to be nice to the elderly workers. But we’re not going to put huge amounts of new capital into a lousy business.”

And he knew that the huge productivity increases that would come from a better machine introduced into the production of a commodity product would all go to the benefit of the buyers of the textiles. Nothing was going to stick to our ribs as owners.

That’s such an obvious concept—that there are all kinds of wonderful new inventions that give you nothing as owners except the opportunity to spend a lot more money in a business that’s still going to be lousy. The money still won’t come to you. All of the advantages from great improvements are going to flow through to the customers.

Conversely, if you own the only newspaper in Oshkosh and they were to invent more efficient ways of composing the whole newspaper, then when you got rid of the old technology and got new fancy computers and so forth, all of the savings would come right through to the bottom line.
:arrow:
And I see them all the time. Rather, they always read: “This capital outlay will save you so much money that it will pay for itself in three years.” (หมายถึงลงทุนเครื่องจักรใหม่)

So you keep buying things that will pay for themselves in three years. And after 20 years of doing it, somehow you’ve earned a return of only about 4% per annum. That’s the textile business.

And it isn’t that the machines weren’t better. It’s just that the savings didn’t go to you. The cost reductions came through all right. But the benefit of the cost reductions didn’t go to the guy who bought the equipment. It’s such a simple idea. It’s so basic.

And yet it’s so often forgotten.
~~~

ประมาณว่า growth destroy value
ลองไปดู
topic
Post subject: ถ้าอยากทราบว่าบริษัทมีการ Reinvest ควรใช้ดัชนีตัวใดวัดครับ
http://board.thaivi.org/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=55989
พูดถึง ROIC กับ WACC
จะเข้าใจเรื่องนี้ดีขึ้น..

:D
โพสต์โพสต์